[dionidium]

I don't find any of this convincing. If there were some way to quantify what you're arguing here, I'd short it.

[malermeister]

That's what the germans said in the late 20s too :-)

[dionidium]

Yes, but either the current situation is like Germany in the 1920s or it isn't and either way it remains the case that it's what the Germans said in the late 20s, so it doesn't actually help us to know that that's what they said, since it will have been what they said even in the case where our situation is absolutely nothing like theirs.