[laydn]

The entire electronics supply chain is currently a shit show and this post explained it perfectly. Other anecdotes from our experiences:

- Chipmaker/Distributor quotes 36 weeks for the parts, we arrange all shipments of all components to the factory based on that date since that part had the longest lead time (~80 unique part numbers in product). 4 weeks later, parts arrive at factory!. We have to wait for all other components for another 32 weeks. Manufacturer does not understand why we're mad since they shipped early!

- Distributor accepts order for a 10ppm MEMS oscillator. After 6 months of silence, we contact the manufacturer directly and they confirm that 10ppm parts will not be manufactured for at least another year since they are prioritizing 50ppm parts.

- Microcontroller manufacturer quotes ~2 years(!) for a part. The brokers have it in stock, and quote approximately 20 times the usual pricing (with a date code of 2021 to rub it in!)

- FPGA manufacturer accepts order for 500pcs, with a lead time of 48 weeks (ok!). After 30 weeks, manufacturer increases pricing for 20% for all orders, including open, active orders. They offer us to cancel the order if we want!

- Analog IC manufacturer announces that they will increase pricing of all products, including all open and active orders, but they can not tell how much of an increase it will be until..... until they are ready to announce I suppose.

- Chip manufacturer sells a chip through its own web page only. Part is currently not defined in any distributors so you have to use their web site. Chip is currently not in stock. However, their order system does not accept back-orders(?!). You have to check back "often" to catch the exact moment when this chip becomes available.

... the list goes on and on ...

[ryanmercer]

I've cleared international freight through Customs for a living for 15.5 years now, it's been interesting watching the reduction in electrical components coming in. It used to be that half or more of the shipments I would process a day would be integrated circuits/memory modules/resistors/capacitors. Now I'll see memory modules once a week, integrated circuits might be 5% of what I see a day, capacitors and resistors I'll see a few times a week now.

The value of the shipments is way way down too, instead of seeing a few hundred thousand dollars of ICs in a shipment, tens of thousands of ICs, I'll see tens of thousands of dollars of ICS in a shipment with the count in the thousands because, presumably, that's all that can be had.

I also notice HDD, SSD, and flash cards/USB storage imports seem to be way, way, down - presumably because they contain ICs as well.

[laydn]

Are you located in the USA?

What you say is somewhat surprising to me. I would imagine the total flow of components would be similar, but would be concentrated to certain destinations/buyers.

If cross-border trade of chips are actually in the decline, that suggests the components are being manufactured in lower quantities (highly unlikely), or they are staying close to and being consumed by (or, maybe hoarded and stocked at) where they are being manufactured.

[ryanmercer]

>Are you located in the USA?

Yes. I clear freight for IND, OAK, EWR, MEM and a few other ports.

> that suggests the components are being manufactured in lower quantities

Eh, to me it suggests people are taking delivery as soon as they can of whatever they can get and that factories are possibly giving more priority to companies in their own country over international customers.

[hef19898]

> - Chipmaker/Distributor quotes 36 weeks for the parts, we arrange all shipments of all components to the factory based on that date since that part had the longest lead time (~80 unique part numbers in product). 4 weeks later, parts arrive at factory!. We have to wait for all other components for another 32 weeks. Manufacturer does not understand why we're mad since they shipped early!

Ah, so true! It shows nicely why predictable but longer lead times are better than potentially shorter ones that are totally chaotic. Being to properly plan is such a huge factor.

[syedkarim]

That last paragraph…TI sells a part for set top boxes (TPS65235). It’s been sold out for months, but it’s possible to receive a notification email when they suddenly decide to run their own productions for the part (their website says 50 weeks). I always receive the notifications in the middle of the night, so by the time I order in the morning, all of the inventory is sold out. One time I happened to be awake during a notification and was unable to purchase just six minutes after receiving the notification.

[Fnoord]

Ugh, I wouldn't wanna be releasing a product relying on hardware under these circumstances. Sometimes the best reaction to a crisis (such as this one leading to delays) is quitting altogether. It doesn't mean it will not restart again at some point (nor that it will!), its taking your loss and putting your money and energy elsewhere. Furthermore, it does something positive: it reduces demand, increases general availability. Which in turn has the potential to reduce incentive to increase price.

Another example: with the high gas price in Europe I feel more incentive to use more clothing, do more sports (increases blood circulation / body temp), and less electricity/gas. I don't want to force it upon my young children though, but I can afford the higher gas price. If you can't, you have to adapt.