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by kortex
1656 days ago
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Not GP but it's a cascade failure mode with theoretically no upper bound in how much chaos it could cause. A toilet paper shortage caused millions to lose their goddamn minds, what do you think having no refrigeration on a world scale for even a week would do? A CME could potentially fry enough equipment that we would be left in in the dark and unable to repair for months, just due to availability of parts. I believe those estimates are at current production rates, too. If the supply chain and global comms are compromised, it's even harder. It's definitely at the sweet spot of "terrifying" and "completely plausible." |
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Here's in-depth info on solar flares. Major ones are considered "Carrington-level events", due to a flare that occurred in 1859: https://www.history.com/news/a-perfect-solar-superstorm-the-...
Vox's 2014 breakdown of the systemic risks: https://www.vox.com/platform/amp/2014/7/30/5951263/a-catastr...
NASA article on the prediction that there was a 12% chance a Carrington-level event would occur by 2022: https://science.nasa.gov/science-news/science-at-nasa/2014/2...
My 40% is based on that information. I'm gut-extrapolating to the next few decades, with the understanding that large devastating flares occur every few hundred years.