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by CuriouslyC 1656 days ago
You're making the same mistake all the star eyed futurists make, which is to not realize that in reality, all exponential curves are just early/mid stage sigmoidal curves. You can paradigm shift all you want, that's not going to make infinite progression a thing.
2 comments

You're making the same mistake all star eyed futurists-skeptics make, which is to not realize that in reality, new sigmoidal curves are started all over the place.

It's just a matter of time and survival. How long? I don't know. Probably long.

There is a finite set of sigmoidal curves that can accelerate/plateau. If you add the "progress" from every curve in the set, that also forms a sigmoidal curve (via a transformation of the central limit theorem) with a plateau that is inescapable. You can't out paradigm shift the nature of reality.
Not just sigmoidal, on a longer timeframe they usually end up being more like gaussian
Indeed. Eventually the planet will run out of CO2 and life on Earth will almost completely disappear. Eventually plate tectonics will stop as well due to the core of the planet cooling. Eventually the Sun will go red giant and the Earth will really die then. Eventually we'll reach the heat death of the universe.

A gaussian with a really long tail!

We're doomed even if we go inter-planetary -- even if we spread through the galaxy! But the timescales are pretty large, and before then we can have a pretty long (in human scales) and good time.

> A gaussian with a really long tail!

So, a Poisson distribution?