[betwixthewires]

I'm guessing you're using an analog to "past performance doesn't predict future performance" which is true.

However, seeing as the default likelihood of predicting any future with certainty is zero, a track record of a model of being entirely unable to predict the future at all does very much indicate that such a model will continue to fail, more often than not.

Predicting the future based on what has happened is not reliable, but predicting the future based on models that have predicted the future before should be reliable, if the models themselves are based in reality.

[onethought]

how did everyone’s model of 2019-2021 pan out on any given metric? Even if they successfully predicted that same metric correctly for the last 100 years.

I guess weather/climate models stay somewhat consistent. But they also don’t predict very far forward.