[bryanrasmussen]

Ok so assuming you had a system that you could give it a bunch of inputs and it would predict what the results from those would be 10 years out, and it was correct 60% of the time from past observations, and you had run it on thousands of simulations (this is obviously a hypothetical) is it then your contention that if you gave it inputs from our current inputs and had it predict results ten years from now that those predictions would not have a 60% chance of being correct?

I mean sure, since there is such a thing as an inductive gap in theory, but it seems to me from your statement that you think it to be an insurmountable obstacle in practice as well?

[cryptonector]

It's obvious enough. Conditions change. Systems are dynamic. A model of human society that "works" for the next 10 years may not work for the subsequent 10 years.