[benr]

Ha! I'm guessing you're being sarcastic?

I just finished listening to John Siracusa on Hypercritical who was making the point that it won't be long until people start saying "there's no way this would have happened on Steve Jobs's watch".

It's easy to see the sarcasm when Steve's only been gone from Apple for a week, but give it a year and people will start forgetting that Apple lead by Steve would go back on decisions when they released they'd made the wrong call.

Another example of this that John gave is when they prematurely removed Firewire from the 13" Macbook. While Steve was CEO they realized that the market wasn't ready for that so they put it back in. And everyone was happy.

In 6 months, if Apple concedes they were wrong on something, will the market think Tim Cook is weak and Apple is doomed?

[masklinn]

> Another example of this that John gave is when they prematurely removed Firewire from the 13" Macbook. While Steve was CEO they realized that the market wasn't ready for that so they put it back in. And everyone was happy.

A much better example is iMovie, because the exact same events unfolded as with FCP:

* Apple has iMovie HD 6, a product with its roots in iMac DV but well understood and liked by its users.

* Apple releases iMovie '08, a complete rewrite of iMovie lacking many of HD6's features and completely panned by critics, HD6 is not available anymore

* Apple makes HD6 available as a free download to all iMovie '08 owners

[homosaur]

I'm not sure the market even knows what the hell FCP is. If they start putting keyboards on the iPhones, then we can talk.

[dlss]

> Tim Cook is weak and Apple is doomed

Sarcasm aside, that's probably true (ignoring your hypothetical person doing poor inference).

See http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Reference_class_forecasting