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by agar 1653 days ago
John Carmack (consulting CTO for VR at Facebook/Meta) said in his most recent talk on VR (paraphrasing despite quotes),

"The internet has been described as people and screens. I've been arguing that the metaverse is just more people and more screens. Trillions of dollars of investment have made 2D screens very effective tools for delivering information. If the metaverse can deliver that information anywhere, at scale, shared with geographically disparate people in the same virtual location, then it will have real value."

I've thought about this and come to agree. Ignore the Snow Crash/Ready Player One "everyone lives in VR" hype, and for now ignore the "all games are interconnected in a shared world" fantasy and just think people and screens.

Already in VR, you can create multiple 2D screens for working in any number or configuration. You can place that in any kind of environment you find comfortable working in. You can create a "window" into the real world to see your real keyboard and mouse. You can see avatars of people in the same room that really feel like they're next to you. All of this is a bit clunky and the resolution is lower than hoped, but it works.

Now scale this up, advance technology, and add time. Higher resolution and lighter headsets are inevitable.

Will people want to work in VR? If it means 4 screens on the balcony of a Tuscan villa instead of a tiny desk in a depressing space? Maybe. They can still type "git push" on a 2d screen with a real keyboard in a virtual space.

Will companies buy a $300 device for every employee? If that replaces the $300 monitors they already buy, it could actually save money.

Will execs wear a 400g headset for 3h? What about if it's a 100g headset and lets them feel present with a globally distributed team that can sit around the same virtual conference table with spatial audio and see body language and facial expressions[1]? Maybe.

The benefits for shared movies, group gatherings, co-working, and social gaming are very compelling. If you stop projecting your preconceived ideas of what a "metaverse" is, and instead ask "what are the opportunities afforded by immersive shared and networked spaces being available to the masses through pervasive cheap technology?", you can come up with pretty compelling use cases that, taken together, ultimately form a far more likely "metaverse" in the near-term (<5 years).

[1] Search for "Codec Avatars" to see progress here. Here's an article with some videos: https://www.theverge.com/2021/10/28/22751177/facebook-meta-c...

2 comments

> Will people want to work in VR? If it means 4 screens on the balcony of a Tuscan villa instead of a tiny desk in a depressing space? Maybe.

There's a lot more to physical environments than high resolution graphics. You've got more senses than just sight. Your body is still experiencing the depressing desk even if your eyes are trying to convince you that you're at a Tuscan villa. That seems more depressing.

You're essentially just describing a high resolution 3D desktop wallpaper.

> You can place that in any kind of environment you find comfortable working in.

That's exactly what I did with my 4 high resolution monitors. And my current setup even lets me go to the kitchen to make a really tasty espresso or a snack without having to disentangle myself from a headset first. And I can even continue to listen to the music from my speakers while sipping aforementioned coffee.

>If it means 4 screens on the balcony of a Tuscan villa instead of a tiny desk in a depressing space? Maybe.

But they still feel the tiny desk in front of them, and still see it through the mentioned "keyboard window", still hear the janitor vacuuming his merry way down the hallway.

So essentially, this would be a desktop background, which costs 400$ and requires recharging a headset every 2h.

> What about if it's a 100g headset

Then they better start making meetings REALLY short, unless they want the battery go flat halfway through the second slide.

> The benefits for shared movies, group gatherings, co-working, and social gaming are very compelling.

Shared movies: big screen + streaming + comfy couch

Group Gatherings: until such time as VirtualReality figures out how to get me an ActualReality beverage, I pass.

Co-Working: Teams/Zoom/etc.

Social Gaming: Already possible, metaverse not required.