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by atlgator 1656 days ago
Don't buy at IPO. Buy after the lockup expires.
5 comments

Is that the pattern of other IPOs? I've seen lots of 'lockup expiry' fud that never materialized. No sudden dump of employee shares.
You really shouldn't expect to; everyone knows it's coming, so it'll be largely priced in.
Also, lockups are common. But not every company has a lockup.
Cloudflare(NET) was ~$18 at IPO. It was ~$19 at lockup expiration 180 days later(versus nasdaq being a few percent down). If you bought at IPO you'd be up 734% but at lockup you'd be up only 688%.
Oh come on. NET stock was and is so volatile that a 5% difference is hardly anything to go by for future decisions
Right. My point was that timing of @IPO or at the end of lockup was largely irrelevant
There's also CloudFoundry which has been strong since IPO
What happens after lockup expires?
Employees who own shares before the IPO are often prevented from selling them right as the company IPO, that's the lockup period. After this period (often 6 months), they are allowed to sold their shares. The reasoning of GP is that a lot of shares will be sold right after the lockup expires (because employees want to cash-in/diversify), artificially depressing the price.
Are the executives included in these measures?
Yes. However, a significant portion of Tech IPOs have a modified lockup which allows selling of a portion of lockup shares based on some event triggers (earnings release + stock performing +x% from issuance price). Lockup agreements are negotiable and can vary from one IPO to another.
Yes, and even investors.
How do one check this?
424B4 (final prospectus) under the section “shares eligible for future sale”, there will be a lockup section.
typically 6 months / 180 days.
Its usually 6 months. But there may be an alternative 'limited' lock up triggered earlier if the stock price is above a certain level continuously for a certain period of time.
Probably in the S1
Looks like 180 days

Page 63

https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1720671/000119312521...

"We and all of our directors, officers, and holders of approximately % of our outstanding stock and equity securities are subject to lock-up agreements with the underwriters that restrict their ability to transfer such shares of stock and such securities, including any hedging transactions, during the period ending on the date that is 180 days after the date of this prospectus, as further described in the section titled “Shares Eligible for Future Sale.”

I gor hit by this once. Never again.