[jasonlaramburu]

Hard to see how a black market for cigarettes will ever be as large as the current legal market, or as large as the prohibition-era market for booze. In most Western societies cigarettes are looked down upon in social situations. How many people, beyond those who are hardcore addicted, would go to the trouble of breaking the law for a smoke?

[easytiger]

In the UK cigarettes are so expensive there is a widely accessible black market. My parents buy illegal cigarettes for example because they are cheaper than buying in a shop. It already exists

[voakbasda]

There are black markets for many mundane things that you would never suspect would be trafficked. Make something illegal (or effectively so, via taxation) and the demand will be met by someone.