[swlp21]

The price increases (10% per year since 2011) have created a market for stolen and counterfeit cigarettes already. Creating a slow-roll prohibition will not stop people wanting to smoke tobacco products - in fact, previous evidence (e.g. alcohol and cannabis as things most people know about) shows that people are motivated to partake by the very idea of it being illicit.

The product of US prohibition was the creation of extremely wealthy alcohol running families who are nowadays big (legitimate) businesses in North America, built up through the wealth of the illegal operations during prohibition.

While the intention (zero smoking) would save many from suffering horrible deaths, observation of basic human motivation suggests the NZ experiment is more likely to make a few people extremely wealthy and not actually stop tobacco smoking at all, no matter how much better off people would be by not smoking.

[foxrider]

While both alcohol and weed can give you altered reality experience, tobacco can not. Tobacco smokers are a major annoyance and a nuisance to the public, on top of killing themselves slowly, so if the tobacco cigarrets would've been strictly illegal and you coldn't smoke in public I can't imagine people willing to organize into small secret clubs to smoke a few cigs a day in a place you have to go to.

[zdragnar]

> I can't imagine people willing to organize into small secret clubs to smoke a few cigs

You mean like what underage kids already do?

[yissp]

smokin' in the boys' room

[nerdponx]

That's not true. A lot of people start smoking because it feels good.

Nicotine is psychoactive, and the physical act of smoking can be pleasant.

[baud147258]

> Tobacco smokers are a major annoyance and a nuisance to the public, on top of killing themselves slowly

isn't it kinda the same with weed anyway?

[tsol]

>While both alcohol and weed can give you altered reality experience, tobacco can not.

What does that really mean? Cigarettes are psychoactive. Passed that, it's just a matter of degrees. To be honest I remember being 18 and smoking cigarettes with my friends and spacing out. In retrospect it was very lame, but kids will try to alter their consciousness however they can

[downrightmike]

Plus they generally just toss their used butts onto the ground everywhere. Toxic, radioactive and a biohazard all in one.

[snarf21]

Good points. Like you said, kids drink underage and kids smoke underage. People buy heroin, etc. even though it is illegal. We'd be better off making these things legal for those 18+, tax them and use that to fund addiction recovery (we already have addicts but no one is paying for recovery).

[chrischattin]

The Portuguese model has been wildly successful.

[lostlogin]

> the NZ experiment is more likely to make a few people extremely wealthy and not actually stop tobacco smoking

The trend is pretty good, and numbers are steadily falling. E-cigarettes have been vowing though. The below stats obviously pre-date the change announced.

https://www.health.govt.nz/publication/annual-update-key-res...

[stuaxo]

This is the thing, as drugs go cigarettes aren't a particularly good one.

[boogywoogy]

Availability matters. Buying drugs/products from dealers is not something most people are comfortable doing.

A ban on smoking products dramatically reduces availability.

There are already black markets for cigarettes anyway. I think they are unavoidable.