[timr]

> These numbers are very small for distinguishing between the effectiveness of two different and effective immunization methods (natural and vaccine). By now, we should have more data to support if the effect size is that strong. Do we?

You should check the number of deaths in the original trials used to approve the Pfizer and Moderna vaccines. You might be surprised. Even in big trials in immunologically naive populations, only a small number of people became seriously ill -- a total of 10 people became seriously ill across the entire Pfizer trial. No deaths occurred. [1]

Once you've vaccinated your population (or otherwise allowed them to become immune), you're talking about incredibly small effect sizes.

[1] https://www.nejm.org/doi/full/10.1056/nejmoa2034577