[rory]

Indeed, they are a large voting base of an alliance of religious conservatives (along with Mormons, conservative Catholics, etc.) that is hyperfocused on that one issue, and so seemingly having some success on it.

But it's not like Amy Coney Barrett is barely Catholic. She's been heavily involved in the church her whole life, and her career has been centered around a deeply Catholic university. She only represents Evangelicals in situations where their belief overlaps with those of the Catholic church.

[ceejayoz]

This gets complicated.

Barrett is both deeply Catholic and part of an organization (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/People_of_Praise) that features aspects typically more in line with American evangelical Protestantism. The Catholic Church can be a surprisingly diverse group theologically; American bishops are frequently feuding with the Pope over issues like the death penalty and abortion.

American evangelicals didn't get in line behind Barrett and Kavanaugh on account of their Catholicism.

[rory]

Sure, this is all complicated. Groups have similarities and overlaps. Anything "charismatic" gets strange. And red state politicians have been able to put a lot of pressure on abortion by basically being supreme court single-issue voters on it.

But I still tend to believe that if Evangelical Protestants were really the ones controlling who is nominated and confirmed to the supreme court more than anyone else, we'd see at least a single Evangelical Protestant on it.