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by MichaelRazum 1649 days ago
Regarding the start up, it highly depends what you are doing. Lets say it is work intensive. Then hire now more people, since wages might go up. Lets say you it is rather commodity intensive. Then guess it is better to buy the stuff that you might need later. Especially you even could hedge with option contracts. So basically I don't see any risk. If you are selling stuff, try to keep the contracts short or adjustable.

Regarding the personal savings. I'm in the same boat. No idea how to hedge, since it seems that everything is quite expensive. So even with high inflation doesn't always imply that the stock markets will go up. Same is true for real estate. It just implies that your real dollar value will go down. I don't see a real hedge, just diversification.
2 comments
teeray 1649 days ago
> Lets say it is work intensive. Then hire now more people, since wages might go up

And this is exactly why you should interview at another company every year

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hogFeast 1649 days ago
One of the best hedges has been index puts. They are the bet that no-one wants, and they get cheaper and more effective as things get crazier. Vol has gone through the roof again so I wouldn't advocate holding them but if Vix gets down to high-teens, that can be a very effective hedge. Some single-stock puts are clearly ludicrous too, I don't have the funds to put on this trade properly but there are tons of stocks out there that are clearly going to collapse if things get dicey. And there are quite a few unfashionable companies on mid single digit P/E that are going to do well in that scenario too (which I do own).

For diversification, I would try to diversify geographically if you want to retain a 100% equities allocation. US is overvalued, lots of markets outside the US are cheap.

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