[IneffablePigeon]

I'm no expert but my understanding is that unfortunately there is some correlation between transmissibility and severity of disease, because one of the ways it can become more transmissible is to reproduce in your cells faster so that you shed more virus particles. This also means it takes over quicker and your immune system has less time to respond before it does lots of damage.

Whether that outweighs the randomness you describe I don't know. Maybe nobody knows for this virus?

[simo7]

Well if the two events (improved transimissibility and improved lethality) are not independent as I assumed then it's certainly bad news.

I also heard the opposite thesis btw, higher transimissibility might sacrifice something in terms of lethality. Like you can't really add much as I'm not an expert.