[harpersealtako]

I don't know who that is, the reason I'm skeptical is the sheer amount of cofounders in most observational studies. My pre-pandemic prior was slightly positive towards masking, strongly negative towards government mask mandates.

My personal totally subjective risk estimates after reading a ton of studies and metanalyses is that n95 masks probably reduce transmission at least somewhat (90% confidence), surgical masks probably have a weak or negligible effect (50% confidence), and cloth masks probably don't work at all (50% confidence).

I personally still wear a surgical mask while at work, at the hospital/doctor's office, and in crowded spaces I expect to be in for a long time such as the DMV, airplanes, trains. I don't wear a mask outdoors, in grocery stores and convenience stores, or when visiting family members. I am moderately against government-imposed mask mandates (both for science-based reasons and ideological reasons) though I do comply with them when they are imposed.