[q-base]

Kudos! As oblivious bystander and no real tennis-knowledge apart from how the game is played, how much pressure will this put on China? How much weight does WTA carry? It will no doubt cause some media coverage no matter the outcome.

[theplumber]

I don't see the chinesse people raising against CCP for this. Not even if the olympics are cancelled.

It's well-known that CCP leaders are untouchable in China just like Kim is untouchable in NK.

On the other hand if you look a bit to our politics, how affected was Trump by the rape/harrasment accusations? Certainly a big part of population would still vote for him even if the rape would be recorded. I don't defend China or CCP but we should put things in perspective.

The most disturbing issue in China I believe is the censorship and persecution of the victims.

[yorwba]

> I don't see the chinesse people raising against CCP for this.

There doesn't need to be a popular riseup. Zhang Gaoli's enemies in the CCP now have some ammunition they can use to convince the people in the CCP who don't give a shit about Zhang Whoever that it's best to get rid of him. Then it's all up to how many true allies he has. (Probably not many, as a has-been.)

I've seen a lot of reporting on Peng Shuai's public appearances or lack thereof, but little on Zhang Gaoli's whereabouts. My guess is that he's under house arrest while the party leadership decides how to deal with him.

No CCP leader is untouchable; they're all reliant on the support of their allies to remain in power. If that support ever runs out, they quickly find themselves stripped of all titles, at the wrong end of a corruption investigation and risk getting executed in the end.

[necovek]

In theory, that could be true. It could even be that China is doing due diligence and trying to avoid tarnishing a reputation of an individual before enough evidence is collected: he's probably lost the support even if everything that happened was deemed "consensual" (not sure if you've read the original message from Peng, but there was a description of an encounter where his wife was in a room next door: I can't imagine that being considered commendable in any way).

But they would probably mention that because this has become such a hot topic: "investigations into Peng's accusations are ongoing" should not be such a hard thing to mutter out.

But even if they did do something proper yet invisible, the obvious pressure on Peng to withdraw her claims and act as if nothing happened are alarming. As is the attempt to rewrite history of the case. They did not even make her say something like "I was under duress/drunk/whatever" or "somebody else stole my phone and wrote that": there is obviously some respect for her public stature, but the main concern is with "health of the nation". By making it all a lie.

[_8zc2]

Here's a bit of evidence for the last statements, and it doesn't even include Gao Gang and Bo Xilai as major targets (though it does mention the latter):

https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2021/7/2/in-its-100-years-who...

[pjc50]

> censorship and persecution of the victims.

Having her "disappeared" by the government is a step far beyond what usually happens in the West, but suppression of the victims in some way is still an extremely big problem and is what the whole "#metoo" movement was about.

[ErikVandeWater]

> On the other hand if you look a bit to our politics, how affected was Trump by the rape/harrasment accusations?

Biden would be a better example. Biden made a point to market himself as a feminist and someone who "believes women [accusers]." Trump did not.

[CamperBob2]

Trump was a bit of a special case, for whatever reason. No other presidential candidacy would have made it thirty seconds beyond the "Grab 'em by the pussy" scandal.

[necovek]

You mean like Clinton/Lewinsky case? I mean sure, being more eloquent and better mannered is all the difference.

[CamperBob2]

No, consent makes all the difference. But thanks for playing.

[pupppet]

And did you mean the same Clinton/Lewinsky that killed his political career? Meanwhile Trump 2024..

[necovek]

He served his full second term, afaik, even after admitting to lying to the Supreme Court. Trump still has another go if he ever wins it (I doubt it, though).

There's plenty of political work after his presidency too: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Bill_Clinton#Post-presidency_(...

[burntbridge]

Seems like in the West we allow ourselves has a lot of "special cases". Maybe too many to bring to mind.

[necovek]

It will probably turn into a non-event in China. As long as other entertainment is available, this is likely to be nothing but a blip.

People do not rise for entertainment, but only when they are seriously affected in their lives. Or when unfairness accumulates enough that they had enough — this will happen at some point in China, if they don't tone it down. But protesting today (and in the past) is a form of luxury: those most in need to protest their treatment usually have the smallest possibility of effectively running one (they are in a constant race to survive).

It's no accident that even throughout history, many protests and revolutions were led/supported by someone from the "elite" (rich, well-educated, plenty of spare time).

[jeswin]

> Or when unfairness accumulates enough that they had enough — this will happen at some point in China, if they don't tone it down.

CCP has built a dissent management stack all the way from early indoctrination to continuous surveillance to Tiananmen style intervention/massacre if the need ever arises. Dissent will be crushed before it becomes a movement.

We're looking at one of the greatest threats to our freedom ever; this time they have nukes, reliable delivery mechanisms and a flourishing economy (which the Soviets lacked).

[necovek]

I have trust in the human race that they will reach a boiling point, and no mechanism can stop that from spiralling out — it's been like that throughout the history. I don't see nukes as of any use (nuking their own dissenting population would surely trigger a civil war: nobody will take that) — nukes are mostly there to deter external invaders (as soon as you use them, that deterring value is gone)!

Their economy is mostly based on inequality between the West and the rest (and internally, between poor regions and cities): as they are quickly catching up in salaries and standard of living, it will level off (sure, their domestic market is huge as well and gives them another few years or a decade).

I'd instead say that media-manipulation based on scientific exploration of the human mind and behaviour is a bigger threat to our freedom: we won't even know that we've lost it. Still, even in that case, I am sure enough people will see what's going on, and will be able to convince others of the bad sides of it.

[hoseja]

Nah, it's clear eusocial species are more fit. Soon comrades in China will engineer a better human, incapable of dissent, working tirelessly for the glory of the Party. This man will rapidly outcompete the silly mono-animal organisms and nation-state slime molds and usher in a great era of eternal harmony.

[necovek]

LOL — thanks for a lighter spin on the discussion!

[baybal2]

> as they are quickly catching up in salaries and standard of living, it will level off (sure, their domestic market is huge as well and gives them another few years or a decade).

Extremely naive. There are plenty of dirt rich countries, countries way more well off than USA which are still completely totalitarian.

[necovek]

Which countries would that be? I can only see Qatar when compared by median at https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_countries_by_wealth_pe..., but when we switch to ranking by "mean" wealth, even that changes.

Basically, none of that convinces me that Chinese economy will continue to see exponential growth as their salaries get closer to Western salaries, and that it will not run into stagnation at that point. This was just a retort to a claim that China will continue to have prospering economy in foreseeable future which allows them to be more formidable and threatening to our freedom.

I am totally not an expert though, but country wealth (esp not those countries driven by natural resource exports) is not a good indicator of future economic performance: sure, it allows a country to pivot and prepare for the change better.

[baybal2]

The prosperity of Chinese economy is much at mercy of Japanese, Koreans, and Taiwanese, not Americans, not even remotely, even if USA will go for a financial nuclear option of denying access to its bank system.

If you look at median incomes, UAE, and Saudis are of course ones with higher per capital income, but you see plenty of other quite prosperous nations in the club. When oil was above $100, and Russians were swimming in USDs, they were even less proclived to go to the streets.

Suharto, Marcos, and a few Latin American dictators equally had their best years when relative prosperity kept populace pliant, even if there was an apparent stagnation.

Popular revolts really only happen at the furthest extremes of the spectrum of prosperity, or rapid movement in it. Even just "not dying from hunger" level of prosperity is enough for dictatorships to survive with ease.

[hef19898]

The better question is how much pressure does it put on other organisations when it comes to bowing to China? Or any other rich, not-so-democratic country like Saudi or Qatar, or...

Because now the WTA, by no means a small sports organisation, did what the IOC, FIFA, NBA, film studios,... didn't have the courage to do. And these orgs now don't have any excuse of doing nothing about those human rights abuses.

[dirtyid]

>And these orgs now don't have any excuse of doing nothing about those human rights abuses.

Money still exists. Real WTA test is to see if they continue suspension once post covid PRC opens up. PRC already cancelled WTA events prior to suspension, likely past 2022 pending on how covid pans out. Short term this is cost free marketting WTA. IOC, FIFA, NBA, film studios still has costs, and they still choose China.

[arvigeus]

Step 1: Scrub Weibo from any mentioning of WTA, or women tennis in general.

Step 2: Withdraw all Chinese tennis players. Complain how WTA decision is hurting sport and this issue should not be politicized.

Step 3: Ban broadcasting of all women tennis tournaments.

Step 4: Massive disinformation campaign against WTA.

Step 5: Push the other organizations that are under CCP's thumb to pressure WTA to back off.

[kstenerud]

China will ignore it and start their own tennis authority, inviting all of the belt-and-road nations to partake. In a way we're seeing the birth of a new "Warsaw Pact vs NATO" kind of thing.