[beerandt]

>A bit under half of Americans have already caught covid

No- that many have had a positive test or other diagnosis confirming covid.

There were plenty of non-hospitalized, non-diagnosed cases before the tests existed. And plenty of people have had it and never saw a reason to get a test to confirm it.

I'd say we're far above that estimated number.

[sjwalter]

So that's not quite true. The CDC provides the estimate you're talking about which is what my post originally cites (~146mm Americans infected). That's their estimate based on the much smaller number of positive tests and hospitalizations, using their models about how many cases are missed by surveillance.