[Isinlor]

My prediction is that it will happen with 50% confidence before/after 2029. Or 50% confidence that it will be between 2026 and 2031.

Basically they need to improve their driving software some 10 000x times. From driving 100km before safety critical disengagement to 1 million kilometers. 1 - 2 million milles is benchmark presented by CJ Moore, Tesla’s director of autopilot software to California Department of Motor Vehicles.

> “Tesla is at Level 2 currently. The ratio of driver interaction would need to be in the magnitude of 1 or 2 million miles per driver interaction to move into higher levels of automation. Tesla indicated that Elon is extrapolating on the rates of improvement when speaking about L5 capabilities. Tesla couldn’t say if the rate of improvement would make it to L5 by end of calendar year.”

If they manage to keep on doubling distance driven every 6 months then we should be there in:

log2(10000) * 6 months = 8 years

You can make your own predictions here: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5304/widely-available-te...