[pieno]

I think it’s actually the kind of simplistic analysis you are referring to that got us into this mess. If we would have put a bit more belief in the epidemic models and acted accordingly from the beginning, we would be a lot better off right now.

But even now, two years into the pandemic, the “people” and policy still seem to be unable to take any action until we see very widespread disastrous effects that were predicted weeks or months in advance. Even now, people still don’t care about an increase from 10 to 20 cases (or any other metric) and won’t take action until they see cases going from 1,000 to 2,000.

Remember the ridicule Merkel faced when she told journalists in summer 2020 that models showed that Germany would see a huge second wave by fall? That just seemed completely nuts to those journalists at the time given the very low number of cases at the time, even if there was already exponential growth again at that moment.

[bsaul]

I certainly remember how the first death toll estimation by neil fergusson were off by (at least) an order of magnitude, and completely changed european countries attitudes from being careful to being hysterical.

I don't think much has changed...