You're right that the argument is fallacious, but you ALSO can't say that the high number of mutations make escape almost certain. Fact of the matter is, we don't know, and it's hard to say.
For there record, I'm predicting it would escape, but I'm far from certain about it, I'd put like a 75% prior.
Whether the value judgement of it being holds we don't know but infection numbers look bad