[whimsicalism]

I think if infection numbers were wildly off we would be able to see it in antibody tests of people coming from China.

Given that tons of people were wearing masks even prior to the pandemic, I don't find it that ridiculous.

[ericmay]

Sure. I think with China and COVID-19 so far my stance is guilty until proven innocent. Not really getting a lot of antibody testing done from people who don't travel or who have died. The CCP is inherently incentivized to fake numbers, underreport (this is a China-wide problem and you can see it manifest in the debt crises unfolding there), and downplay any problems so that the CCP looks strong.

And this has nothing to do with being pro or anti-China. I think it's just an obvious recognition of incentives and current state.