[esyir]

That CDC article is likely outdated. In particular, refer to this line in the cited paper:

>Second, the study period for this analysis occurred before the predominance of the B.1.617.2 (Delta) variant;

In the Israeli study, they specifically were observing efficacy against the delta variant, which is the dominant (or will be dominant everywhere eventually). This is notable, because Delta, while not fully escaped, has shown some degree of resistance to the current vaccines.

As such, what I think is the most correct interpretation, given the current information (and is in line with my intuition) is that yes, the vaccines provided greater protection against initial strains, but the relatively narrow target means that they provide a less robust response against later divergence as compared to the more robust natural immunity.