[kesselvon]

The U.S. supply chains would be completely wrecked. We're probably close to a point where in the event of a global war with China, we wouldn't be able to mobilize industry in the same way we did during WW2 simply because the industrial output fo yesteryear no longer exists in the U.S.

[ethbr0]

On the other hand, people forget the amount of IP (including semi design) that goes from the world to China/Taiwan to design products.

But that's what the whole point of free trade is supposed to be: increased interdependence, so that everyone has a gun to everyone else's head, and no one is incentivized to pull the trigger.

[jakeinspace]

China can manage with loss of most or all access to American/NATO IP. America/NATO can't really manage without Chinese imports.

[ethbr0]

That's not accurate today. It might be different in 10 years, depending on how successful China is at becoming self-sufficient in semiconductor design and manufacturing.

Global companies didn't just outsource all the work to China. Even in the 90s, they were aware of the risk/reward, and specifically retained high-value, low-headcount/capital work outside of China.

As a result, China makes most of a device, but many core components are imported.

https://www.nasdaq.com/articles/huawei-revenue-slides-in-q3-...

[kesselvon]

We're not even talking about semiconductors. All of the basic goods you'd need to supply an army, or the industrial capacity for consumer goods that could be shifted to wartime production no longer exists. It's a problem the DoD has been talking about for years, but little action has happened.

[ethbr0]

Basic goods like food?

Imports, Total Estimated Value by Country, 2017 (most recent) [0]: Canada: 26,200.3, Mexico: 23,541.0, [...] China: 6,159.7

Or energy?

"In 2020, the United States exported about 8.51 MMb/d and imported about 7.86 MMb/d of petroleum1, making the United States a net annual petroleum exporter for the first time since at least 1949." [1]

Or arms?

Based and manufacturing in the US: Honeywell, Huntington Ingalls (ex: Northrup Grumman Shipbuilding), L-3, UTC, General Dynamics, Northrop Grumman, Raytheon, Boeing, and Lockheed Martin [2]

If you're talking a full manpower, total war scenario that requires mobilization of the entire country's non-military industrial base...?

I think there's a reason there haven't been any wars like that between nuclear armed powers. Ever.

Because by the time it gets to that stage now, someone has fired nuclear weapons if they have them.

[0] https://www.ers.usda.gov/data-products/us-food-imports/us-fo...

[1] https://www.eia.gov/energyexplained/oil-and-petroleum-produc...

[2] https://www.therichest.com/the-biggest/top-20-largest-arms-m...

[hermes8329]

They just steal the IP anyways

[phkahler]

>> The U.S. supply chains would be completely wrecked.

China: Hey cool, we can destroy the US without engaging with them at all, we can just complete our takeover of Taiwan which we wanted to do anyway. We just need to make it disruptive enough to stop exports for a year or so - maybe a bit longer.

[kcb]

Yea just stop $500 billion in exports. That won't hurt the Chinese economy at all.