[hinkley]

> You should evaluate the investment just like any other investment

Except it's not like any other investment. It's an investment that you are too close to. You can't think 100% objectively about an investment that you're too close to. For many people the solution is unambiguous: If I can't be objective about a decision then the answer is automatically 'no'.

[redshirtrob]

There are lots of things I'm close to that I need to think objectively about. Maybe I don't hit your ideal of 100%, but I do my best. Investments is one area. The health and well being of my children is another. You can never have perfect objectivity. You do the best you can. GP's advice is too rigid and therefor not very good.

FWIW, I'm speaking from experience. Had I taken GP's advice and "never exercise unless it's early exercise" then I would have missed out on a lot of money.

The other thing to keep in mind is you don't have to exercise 100% of your vested options. If you're too nervous or don't trust your own judgement, maybe go for 10%, or whatever makes you comfortable. There's a lot of room between 0 and 100 here. Go ahead and explore it.