[KronisLV]

> And from 200,000 years of marginal progress we suddenly went in less than 7,000 years from no writing and thinking the ground below our feet the largest thing in existence to measuring how long it takes the fastest thing in our universe (light) to cross the smallest stable object in our universe (a hydrogen atom).

Personally, i don't doubt that AGI is possible, even though it becoming a reality might take any number of centuries or millennia, if humanity even sticks around for that long and AGI is still a goal that they pursue.

The problem lies in everyone thinking on a more human timescale: "Will we see AGI during my lifetime?" The answer to that is almost certainly no, no matter how much the industry tries to sell state machines as AI or fledgling efforts as revolutionary advances.

Being overly optimistic in regards to time scales only hurts oneself, like expecting that we'd all have flying cars or even that we'll be able to get rid of ICE vehicles or make significant improvements to slowing the pace of climate change.