[ColinHayhurst]

One has to wonder why these protests, which happen every week and are big, barely get reported in the media. When they are mentioned many people denounce them as being a bunch of anti-vaxxers. This is far from true, but like so much propoganda nowadays has an element of truth.

Personally, I'm pro-vaccine, double jabbed and luckily no bad experiences with side effects. But I'm vehemently anti-vaccine passport. Every one should have a right to choose. We all have a unique and complex life. It is not for me or you or govt to decide on things like this.

Never mind the outrageous curbs on freedoms, vaccine passports are likely to be if anything counterproductive. Vaccines work in saving lives. But the vaccinated are being infected at higher rates than the non-vaccinated according to UK govt data [0].

More details and a handy extract of the data, protests, and my views in this thread on Twitter: https://twitter.com/ColinHayhurst/status/1462003898898657291

[0] https://www.gov.uk/government/publications/covid-19-vaccine-...

[Jugurtha]

The peaceful protests in Algeria, gathering hundreds of thousands and sometimes millions, nation wide, every week, for close to three years, were 'barely' covered, even less so when the people were brutally assaulted and arrested by the thousands.

There are some of them still in jail, they were snatched from cafés or from home. Some of them were arrested for a Facebook status, or a cartoon. Some were arrested for 'intelligence with a foreign power' (they were accredited journalists). I may be arrested for writing this.

[zo1]

I didn't know about those protests at all till your comment.

[Jugurtha]

Yeah. Considering they led to a President resigning after 20 years of systematic power concentration, to the head of intelligence services being thrown in jail, to a purge where prime ministers, ministers, generals, the head of the Police, and a bunch of other people going to jail, and the people still demanding that those who are throwing these 'corrupt' people in jail and the judges and prosecutors be removed, as they themselves are considered corrupt.

In complete darkness internationally for three years.

There are massive numbers of people fleeing the country not because there is violence, but because they don't see hope. I think there are more who left the country now than during the decade of civil war.

[ColinHayhurst]

I too had not heard of these protests there, thank you for sharing.

I know very well about peaceful protests in North Macedonia[0], which thankfully led to a bloodless, at the ballet box, overthrow of a corrupt government. It was a powder keg for years, including fights in the parliament chamber (thankfully not involving guns) and the election vote was a knife edge decision. The former leader escaped to Humgary and is protected by Orban.

Similarly massive numbers of people (>30%) have fled the country also not because of violence, but because they don't see hope. The economy was ruined and money siphoned out by those in power. It has not got much better since, and now the country is again on a knife edge with the PM having resigned.

[rbut]

So would you say that protests work?

[Jugurtha]

Let's say that I'm more actively exploring options than ever before to:

- Make it possible for my younger teammates to have options (https://twitter.com/jugurthahadjar/status/145841354768011264...) and potentially get another passport that gives them options.

- Make it possible for them to have a sizeable equity to apologize for the opportunity cost they have incurred by staying.

- Make it possible for my whole family to have options.

Let's also say that practically everyone I know has left: I am in a local exile. Let's also say that I am way too familiar with how precincts work and have too many lawyers in my contacts for anyone not involved in criminal activities to have, and let's also say that I am extremely careful about what I say online. Let's also say that I'm pushing my friend whose wife is pregnant to make sure his wife gives birth elsewhere so his daughter gets a passport that offers mobility. Let's also say that my first advice to students who ask me for advice is to Get the Fuck Out, and let's also say that I'm constantly reminding my team to save money, and let's also say that I'm having conversations with my siblings to answer the question: what are we still doing here? (we're the only ones who have stayed. Practically all my family has left decades ago). My mother's refusal to live elsewhere was the main reason we stayed. She passed away in July.

Would you say that I have answered your question?

[ChrisSD]

You have the right to choose. A passport gives others necessary information so they can choose.

Managing public health is difficult enough even without people forcing their choices on to others.

[headsoup]

You do realise the passport doesn't actually provide any information on whether you do or don't have covid, right?

[ChrisSD]

Huh? The NHS COVID Pass does. It allows sharing vaccine status in both domestic and international contexts.

[agentgumshoe]

The vaccine does not protect against infection, it only reduces that risk. The pass only says you've had the vaccine, not that you're covid negative.

[ChrisSD]

I'm struggling to see your point? If someone wants to exercise their freedom of association during a pandemic they should be able to do so. I feel very strongly about this and don't like the alternative of restricting people's rights unnecessarily.

[headsoup]

Sorry I may have misinterpreted. So the pass does actually provide live covid status (positive/negative)? That's interesting, I thought they just showed vaccine status

[agentgumshoe]

I think that's the sad thing about it all. There's a self-righteousness about those who got vaxxed 'for the greater good' even as the vaccine fails to do its job, able to hand wave away 100's of thousands of people peacefully protesting as time wasters or 'anti-vaxxers' instead of considering that maybe, just maybe there's a concern or two they should actually be thinking about. Especially when the media seems extremely hesitant to cover or investigate further themselves.

The most insanely ironic thing happening in Australia at the moment is a small group of anti-protester-protesters calling themselves 'anti-fascists' as they oppose those protesting against a risk of authoritarian powers!

[akudha]

even as the vaccine fails to do its job,

Wait, I was led to believe that the vaccine doesn't necessarily stop you from catching covid, it just doesn't put you in the hospital on ventilators. If that is correct, then the vaccine IS doing its job, no?

[agentgumshoe]

Depends on what you think success is. Higher hospitalisation and case rates across the board with countries reintroducing restrictions doesn't sound like a success to me. And no, you can't just blame the unvaccinated when transmission is occuring readily through the vaccinated and hitting the hospitals, even if the individual outcomes are less severe.

[djantje]

Yes, the vaccine does it's job in preventing transmissions, hospital admissions and deaths

But sadly not for a 100%

[nnx]

> vaccine passports are likely to be if anything counterproductive

Clearly, or at least there are absolutely zero studies to show they are helping in any way. And yet more and more countries are trying to impose them in lockstep fashion.

[tgv]

That's not the question; at best it's a naive frame. The question is: is there evidence that shows they're counterproductive?

> in lockstep fashion

A not so naive frame.

[WalterGR]

> Clearly, or at least there are absolutely zero studies to show they are helping in any way.

How long have COVID-19 vaccine passports existed?

[sleepysysadmin]

>One has to wonder why these protests, which happen every week and are big, barely get reported in the media. When they are mentioned many people denounce them as being a bunch of anti-vaxxers. This is far from true, but like so much propoganda nowadays has an element of truth.

Same reason the media are who pushed the narrative that covid is as bad as the spanish flu. Even though it never was. It has left quite a number of people believing that covid is worse than the normal flu. Which it never was.

I've considered as well, if the media reported the truth. Would our society have considered lockdowns at all? If society knew the truth that covid has lower risk than the normal flu season. We wouldn't have done anything. We know because we dont do anything for normal flu.

Flipside, shouldnt we try to eliminate these things?

[Yoric]

> But the vaccinated are being infected at higher rates than the non-vaccinated according to UK govt data.

I've been poring your gov.uk link and the closest thing I can find to data that would back this affirmation comes with very heavy caveat:

« Comparing case rates among vaccinated and unvaccinated populations should not be used to estimate vaccine effectiveness against COVID-19 infection. Vaccine effectiveness has been formally estimated from a number of different sources and is summarised on pages 5 to 8 in this report.

The case rates in the vaccinated and unvaccinated populations are unadjusted crude rates that do not take into account underlying statistical biases in the data and there are likely to be systematic differences between these 2 population groups. »

Also, assuming that your conclusions are, is that the number we should be watching? We're looking for number of people who go to the hospital, die or suffer from long covid. According to the same table you're looking at, vaccines are a huge success at preventing deaths (I haven't bothered looking data on these other points).

edit Nuanced my response. I believe that the parent's response came before my edit.

[ColinHayhurst]

https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=29287164

[Febra33]

> But the vaccinated are being infected at higher rates than the non-vaccinated according to UK govt data

I just checked your source and can't find anything to confirm your claim. Just take the latest vaccine surveillance report https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/government/uploads/... and please do tell me where it confirms your claim that vaccinated people are infected at higher rates than the non-vaccinated. I am very intrigued.

[ColinHayhurst]

See the table on page 23. 2nd and 3rd columns. Like all stats treat with caution - see comments on p24.

[Febra33]

Thank you. I have just looked at the table and you seem to be right. The infection rate in the age range 30 to 80 is higher for vaccinated than unvaccinated. For the other groups it is higher in the unvaccinated populations (≤30, 80≥). It seems like vaccinated people in the age range 30 to 80 seems to behave more careless due to the fact that they are vaccinated and happen to catch the virus.

At the same time I have been looking at the other columns as well. The first column shows the rate of infection in people that have just tested positive. The other three columns show how much more dangerous the virus is to people who have not been vaccinated and end up in the hospital. Way more unvaccinated people end up in the hospital than vaccinated people. At the same time, way more cases of unvaccinated people that ended up in the hospital end in death than in cases of vaccinated people. The hospitalisation rates in the unvaccinated populations are from 2 to up to 4 times higher than in vaccinated populations. The death rates even more so show this discrepancy between the cases that end up in death coming from unvaccinated vs. vaccinated people.

Besides that, there are some very important pieces of information missing in this entire story. We do not know how many people have had previous infections. Read the following comment on p24: > people who have never been vaccinated are more likely to have caught COVID-19 in the weeks or months before the period of the cases covered in the report. This gives them some natural immunity to the virus for a few months which may have contributed to a lower case rate in the past few weeks

With that being said, I give you that, you are right in the fact that there are more infections in the vaccinated population than in the unvaccinated, but at the same time the former seem to have a better time after contracting the virus than the latter (proof are the death rates).

With that being said, I do not think that the right decision is to dump the vaccination certificates/passports, rather I think the right decision would be to further implement the certificate as a requirement alongside periodic testing. It has been proven in other parts of the world that the vaccination certificate is indeed an incentive for people to get the vaccine, which in turn would help the hospitalisation rates fall. Testing is still detrimental.

[agentgumshoe]

The problem is, the vaccinated are still dying and going to hospital in increasing numbers while also (if the lancet etc are correct) carrying higher viral load and spreading the virus faster. It's not clear the vaccine end goal is a net benefit if the virus is not stopped, while also risking for evolution of hotter virus variants. The shame is that the unvaccinated are treated as some lower class almost criminals, when the whole point of the vaccine drive was supposed to be about protecting the vulnerable. Most people now seem to think the unvaccinated are walking around with covid holding hands all the time, with the vaccinated still fearful of them. It's irrational.

What is the point of the passport if you can do effective pre-testing and the vaccine does not prevent covid in itself?

[Febra33]

I just think that it's a shame so many resources go to waste into treating infected unvaccinated people (they have a higher chance of ending up in the hospital) when we could redirect those resources to people that can't avoid hospitalisation with something as easy as getting a vaccine. Many scientists have been saying for months now that the vaccine might not be that effective in protecting against an infection but that it surely helps in not ending up in the hospital. I would have absolutely no problem with people refusing the vaccine if they didn't end up putting the healthcare system at risk. My home country of Romania is plagues by these cases and I have relatives that ended up having to wait for at least 3 to 4 hours for a broken bone that would've been handled in no longer than 20 minutes before. People I know, people with cancer need to postpone their operations since hospitals are working at maximum capacity. With that being said, we are living in extreme situations right now and action is needed. Vaccines might not be THAT effective in preventing infections (since people just go about their lives after getting the jab), but it surely helps with not overflowing the hospitals.

[agentgumshoe]

But the vaccinated are still ending up in hospital in increasing numbers. It's not that simple. Also, it amazingly continues to remain anecdotal instead of receiving proper media/scientific investigation, but the side effect profile is nowhere near as small as reported. Considering the affected are mostly younger, it is concerning the level of dismissal directed at this, rather instead a trusting statements from the vaccine manufacturers (who have immunity) instead. There needs to be a bit more critical thinking here.

[mordae]

There was massive underreporting of COVID cases related to job safety in Czechia. Might be similar in the UK.

I'd wager a guess that vaccinated people reported COVID to authorities more often than non-vaccinated people, because they apparently tended to comply with the recommended policy.

Unvaccinated people might have tended to treat mild COVID cases as simple colds and unless more severe symptoms developed not test or report.

[crimsonnoodle58]

From the PDF you linked. Go to Table 6.

First and second columns are shown per 100,000 people.

For ages 18-80 the cases per 100,000 people are the same or higher (up to 2x higher) in the fully vaccinated vs the unvaccinated.

[tgv]

So that would contradict this statement from the same report: "With the delta variant, vaccine effectiveness against infection has been estimated at around 65% with Vaxzevria and 80% with Comirnaty (4)."

The footnote under that table also says "Comparing case rates among vaccinated and unvaccinated populations should not be used to estimate vaccine effectiveness against COVID-19 infection."

Edit: it would also be difficult to reconcile with the enormous disparity between <18 and subsequent rows.

[djantje]

If 100% of the people are vaccinated, 100% of the infections will be from vaccinated people.

[crimsonnoodle58]

It's per 100,000 people, based on their vaccination status. It's already normalised.

[djantje]

You are correct, I must say I didn't expect this to be the case (ofcourse I also read the footnote, but still)

[plantain]

Isn't that entirely expected with most of the population vaccinated? I imagine most car crash deaths are from those wearing seatbelts too.

[agentgumshoe]

No, the rate per 100k should be much lower if vaccination is working properly. Yes the case numbers would be expected to be higher (a lot of people argue 'base rate fallacy'to support this), but that fails to address that the vaccine should reduce the rate per population, even if raw numbers are expected to be higher due to coverage. The data is not supporting that.

[crimsonnoodle58]

The UK is only around 67.6% fully vaccinated. Regardless, these numbers are per 100,000 people based on their vaccination status. They are normalised.

[wsc981]

In Germany a MP has compared statistics of various states and noticed more excess deaths in states that have higher vaccination rates. She has asked to German Ministry of Health to look into the cause.

https://youtu.be/iKVOqYUAHTo

[stubish]

Over here we seem to give more coverage to the anti protests than to the counter protests that we are now seeing with people fearful that pro-health policies will get derailed. https://www.abc.net.au/news/2021-11-20/covid-anti-lockdown-v... mentions both, but many more words on the anti protest groups.

[gnucru]

Wow, that is a pretty misleading and irresponsible use of gov't data, and I would be surprised if it fooled anyone here. With 70% vaccination rate in the uk, the rate of infection among the vaxxed would need to be over double that of the unvaxxed to indicate a lack of effect. It is simple math. Are you really that oblivious(in which case you should probably keep your mouth shut), or are you just trying to make fools of others..???

[ColinHayhurst]

The numbers are normalised (per 100,000)

[junon]

> But the vaccinated are being infected at higher rates than the non-vaccinated according to UK govt data

Good god I'm so tired of having to explain vaccines to people.

Vaccines do NOT prevent you from being infected. That is NOT their purpose. That is NOT why they are created. The vaccine would have to somehow physically prevent the virus from entering your system. Not a single qualified, authoritative person on this subject has ever claimed they do.

EDIT: Downvoters, you're downvoting fact. Do you realize this? Healthcare professionals all over the world are absolutely sick of the willful ignorance. Your actions are getting people killed.