[pwnna]

Maybe both your observation and HN is right: the distribution is multi-modal in the sense that (presumably) there is a large majority of people where the thumbnail works for and views the content, and then there is a small (and possibly vocal) minority of people who absolutely hate it and treat it as an anti-signal. I know I belong in the latter group and will lose all interest in the video once I see the weird face and the edited icon. I've seen a few of your videos and they're indeed very good. That said, I've noticed that I semi-consciously would avoid your video due to the icon which triggers an immediate reaction from me to stay away. It's a shame, because I know that the videos can be good, but the thumbnail is actively driving me away. In a way, I'm no different than the people who clicks on these videos, as I am also judging a book by its covers.

This kind of multi-modal behaviour can be very hard to capture with A/B test. You get a large influx of people that more than offsets the loss in the other audience pool. It's also anyone's guess on which group is better. From a pure business perspective, it's probably okay to lose me, as I use adblock and/or youtube-dl to watch the videos, which means I don't really drive revenue. That said, I've noticed some second order effects: as I'm more technical, I would recommend these type of content to others who will listen to my advice. I've noticed similar effects with others. If the more technical people are in the second group and are driven away, I wonder if this kind of stuff makes a difference with the long term health of a channel/content generator, which could be very difficult to quantify.

In any case thanks for your videos and insights.

[Ruthalas]

This seems thoughtful and accurate, and reflects my own response to the video.