[lelanthran]

> Not bothering to file because of a 3/5 chance of losing seems crazy. It's actually pretty hard to tell 60/40 apart from 50/50, especially if there's lots of covariates.

It only seems like that because you're looking at the raw numbers. When you look at the actual stakes, it's quite different.

Let's say we play a coin-toss game: Each time I win the toss, I give you $1. Each time you win the toss, you give me $100.

Would you play? Think it's not fair? Okay, lets make it fair.

Each time you win, you win $1m. Each time you lose, you pay $1m. Would you play against me (I'm not rich)? Would you agree to play against Bill Gates/Jeff Bezos/etc?

It's not just the odds that matters, it's the fact t, even on even odds, in some cases you stand to lose much more than the opposing side.