[Djrhfbfnsks]

Thanks for your suggestions. For my use case (tuning parameters of a financial market simulation), I'm essentially able to get good noise estimates for free by re-sampling a set of parameters multiple times.

So for example, rather than simulate an entire month in one shot, I'll simulate a day 30 times and therefore have a decent estimate of the noise for that result and be able to clearly distinguish the noise from the covariance of the Gaussian process.

The noise in these simulations can vary dramatically in parameter space (easily 10-100x), so it seems like it would be important to model.

[romangarnett]

That's a fortunate scenario! If you have good noise estimates available then you can sidestep the need to infer the noise scale and instead simply proceed with "typical" heteroskedastic inference. When the observation noise variances are known, you only need to modify the typical GP inference equations to replace the σ²I term that appears in the homoskedastic case (where σ² is the constant noise scale) with a diagonal matrix N indicating the noise variances associated with each observation along the diagonal.

(One might imagine a slightly more flexible model including a scaling parameter, replacing N with c²N and inferring c from data.)