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by Locke1689 5415 days ago
I don't understand. http://www.wolframalpha.com/input/?i=life+expectancy+at+21 says that my life expectancy is 76.62 years and my probability of dying is 0.001329. That's a really low probability of dying already and I haven't even weighted in statistics like being healthy, high income, and taking the bus instead of car or bike. I can't believe that my probability of dying before I'm thirty is any higher than 0.1%.
1 comments
AngryParsley 5415 days ago
0.001329 is 0.13%, and that's just for the next year of your life. On Wolfram Alpha, look under survival probability and you'll see that your chance of dying before age 30 is 0.93%.
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Locke1689 5415 days ago
I'm well aware that 0.13% is for the next year. The survival probability on Wolfram Alpha, however, doesn't take more specific statistics into account. The only things the data have are race, age, and sex. My supposition is if it took more interesting things into account (socioeconomic class, general health, commute patterns, drug use, etc) my actual probability of death before age 30 is no more than 0.1%. I'm not worried.
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mmaro 5415 days ago
There's no way your probability is close to 0.1%.

Exhibit A: http://www.cdc.gov/injury/wisqars/pdf/Death_by_Age_2007-a.pd...

Exhibit B: life insurance companies collect a lot of data from you, and no company will price a 21 year old anywhere near 0.1%.

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Locke1689 5415 days ago
The CDC data just shows causes of death. The first most common is "Unintentional injury," which I assume covers things like car accidents and risky sports. Neither affect me because I don't drive (take the bus) and don't participate in dangerous sports.

I shouldn't have to address homicide. I'm from the Baltimore area -- I know exactly who that age group is weighted by and I'm not concerned about dying by homicide.

I'm not going to commit suicide.

Malignant neoplasm (cancer) is unlikely. I'm low on risk factors and don't have a high genetic propensity. I'm also in the fortunate position of having a better knowledge of my medical risk factors than most people because I'm from a family of doctors.

Your second example isn't even a real example. You have no data, you're just making a claim. As far as life insurance goes, I doubt they collect extremely accurate statistical data. It's not in their best interests to lower their premiums so I would expect any life insurance policy to be heavily weighted in their favor.

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