[hamstercat]

Historically sitting on cash is a terrible decision a majority of the time, it's not even close. Without knowing you, your chance of correctly timing the peak and the bottom of the market is simply abysmal. The market may crash tomorrow, but it probably won't.

Let's say by incredible luck you manage to time both of these events perfectly, then what? There will be other crashes in the future, that's a certainty. And you won't be able to time all of them.

[medvezhenok]

Yes, but [most of the time] historically we also didn't have an all-time high retail participation in markets, highest P/E ever, unprofitable companies skyrocketing to crazy heights, insane speculative mania.

I agree that timing the drop is very difficult, but there is going to be a drop for sure - what has been happening in markets recently is definitely not "the new normal"

[batshit_beaver]

One thing to keep in mind is that while there is indeed plenty of speculation, there's also plenty of healthy criticism of the current valuations as well as outright doomsday talk from fairly well known investors.

What this means is that for now the market continues to self correct and we haven't reached peak positive sentiment yet. Historically, massive selloffs happen because of unexpected sudden changes in sentiment (2000, 2008) or due to black swan events (2020). Given that we just went through a black swan and the markets aren't overly optimistic, I wouldn't expect a large crash in the immediate future.