[HenryKissinger]

My point of view, as a non-techie: Facebook.com is running fine. Instagram.com is running fine. WhatsApp is running fine. Facebook doesn't need more storage space. Facebook active users aren't growing anymore (if you exclude bots, scammers, fake profiles, and double accounts), youngsters are fleeing Instagram for TikTok, and WhatsApp is at peak market saturation. Global human population is peaking and will start declining within a couple of decades, anti-Facebook views are more popular than ever, and deservedly so. The MetaVerse will be a flop, and Facebook won't get into the cloud business, because it's too late to disrupt Microsoft and Amazon. Ergo, Facebook doesn't need anywhere near 47 new data centers. If the Facebook app was experiencing regular outages I would understand. Am I missing something?

[barake]

Many Facebook media processing services reach capacity every week. Video uploads, live ingestion, etc are a mess during peak times.

[TigeriusKirk]

> The MetaVerse will be a flop

Obviously they're going to build out as if the thing they're betting the company on isn't going to flop.

That's the thing you're missing.

[specialist]

Cool projects like money laundering (libra cryptocurrency), sex bots (PornVerse), and tree forts (data centers, office spaces) are about devs, not customers.

Facebook believes its core operational challenge is recruiting and retaining talent. That means buying their loyalty.

Separately...

Its financial challenge is preventing thieves from stealing its hard won cheddar. Such as governments imposing windfall taxes and thwarting its cash cows.

Its sovereign challenge is maintaining Zuck's continued dominion over the enterprise. Which will end shortly after Zuck, Inc's profits stop growing, causing a shareholder revolt. (And talent exodus.) I'm absolutely certain Zuck's financial team has predicted that crossover point with uncanny accuracy, including factoring the projections you identified, and much more.

I have zero basis for predicting that the status quo of Zuck, Inc will be stable for the next 5 years, and more likely 10.

[noahtallen]

Yes, Facebook has millions (billions?) of active users adding new content. If their user growth is stagnant (I doubt it is, especially including instagram/WhatsApp), a significant amount of media and content is uploaded and streamed to and from their data centers each day. So the amount of storage capacity Facebook has needs to increase as well.

And that’s just a portion of what data centers are used for.

[frankbreetz]

While I agree that Metaverse will be a flop, the people at Facebook obviously think it is the next big thing, and I would imagine hosting a vr world would take up a lot of space, they would need a lot of data centers to host it.

[missedthecue]

People can be active on more than one app at a given time. I completely refute the assertion that young people are 'fleeing instagram for tiktok'. They're totally different ideas. TikTok is for short videos; skits and jokes. Instagram is a life blog for images primarily.

[short12]

Portions of Facebooks app have been facing lots of downtime.

And I disagree. They need more storage and processing power and will continue to do so. They are not going anywhere in the next couple of decades thats for sure

Meta will be a complete failure and be made fun of for years though

[rfd4sgmk8u]

I don't think it is safe to say they are not going anywhere in the next couple of decades. Can you name ANY internet property that has this attribute?

Zuck's greatest fear was that his products would be uncool. What is the coolness factor in 2021?

[m0zg]

I heard from a FB insider that they estimate the half-life of a social networking service to be about 7 years, so they plan with that in mind. Facebook the site might not be there in 20 years, but Meta the company almost certainly will be (even though I think Metaverse will be a flop worse than the Fire Phone), unless US Government puts them out of business.

[crakenzak]

> Meta will be a complete failure and be made fun of for years though

If you really believe this, have some backbone and put your money where your mouth is. Short them.

[mateo411]

I believe that the Metaverse will be a flop. I also believe that FBs stock price will continue to rise.

The market for digital advertising is still growing and I think FB will capture more than their current share of that growth.

They can afford misadventures like the Metaverse.

[HenryKissinger]

Google's stock is higher than when Google Plus launched. The same will be true of FB.

[cambeiu]

Then open a contract on the prediction markets on their products failing. Talk is cheap.

[hans-moleman]

“You’re opinion isn’t valid if you aren’t willing to spend money it.”

This way of thinking is so out of touch it hurts. Not everyone is some tech bro making bank and spending their free time doing crypto and option trades. The commenter has a valid belief that doesn’t need to be belittled just because you may not agree with it.

[kalleboo]

The market can stay irrational for longer than you can stay solvent