[sdenton4]

First, the risk of getting myocarditis after vaccination seems to be around 14 in 100,000.

"As of June 11, 2021, approximately 296 million doses of mRNA COVID-19 vaccines had been administered in the United States, with 52 million administered to persons aged 12–29 years; of these, 30 million were first and 22 million were second doses. Within the Vaccine Adverse Event Reporting System (VAERS) (4), the national vaccine safety passive monitoring system, 1,226 reports of myocarditis after mRNA vaccination were received during December 29, 2020–June 11, 2021."

Second, the risk of death is much lower:

"Of the 323 persons meeting CDC’s case definitions, 309 (96%) were hospitalized. Acute clinical courses were generally mild; among 304 hospitalized patients with known clinical outcomes, 95% had been discharged at time of review, and none had died."

Link: https://www.cdc.gov/mmwr/volumes/70/wr/mm7027e2.htm

[jcranmer]

Based on total yearly cases of myocarditis, your yearly risk of getting myocarditis without vaccination is around 1 in 1,000-10,000. This suggests that many of the events reported in VAERS is due to random happenstance, not any causative effect of the vaccine.

(Many, but not all--from the EU data, IIRC, excess myocarditis events were in the range of about 1 in 100,000, not 1 in 10,000.)