[jmopp]

There's a difference between elimination and eradication. Elimination means getting cases close to 0 as possible, and then - any outbreaks that do occur, tracking them and stamping them out before they can spread.

A good analogy is that of TB in most of Europe. When I moved from South Africa to the Netherlands, I had to have a chest X-ray every 6 months for 2 years to make sure I'm not infectious with TB. The disease has not been eradicated, but there are measures in place to make sure people don't die of consumption like it's the 1800s. We can do the same with covid, there is just a supreme lack of will to do so.

[wk_end]

> There's a difference between elimination and eradication. Elimination means getting cases close to 0 as possible, and then - any outbreaks that do occur, tracking them and stamping them out before they can spread.

Is that...true? I'm a native English speaker, and "elimination" and "eradication" are completely synonymous to me, at least in terms of denotation. That is to say, both of these mean "absolutely no SARS-CoV-2 remains." The dictionary agrees with this, too: eliminate is defined as "completely remove or get rid of (something)". What you're describing sounds a lot more like "containment"

I'd certainly accept that epidemiologists have their own lingo that differs from natural English, but it also...kinda sounds like you might be mistaken.

[cannabis_sam]

I think the terms have more narrow and specific meanings in the context of fighting disease.

From https://www.cdc.gov/mmwr/preview/mmwrhtml/su48a7.htm

>Control: The reduction of disease incidence, prevalence, morbidity or mortality to a locally acceptable level as a result of deliberate efforts; continued intervention measures are required to maintain the reduction. Example: diarrhoeal diseases.

>Elimination of disease: Reduction to zero of the incidence of a specified disease in a defined geographical area as a result of deliberate efforts; continued intervention measures are required. Example: neonatal tetanus.

>Elimination of infections: Reduction to zero of the incidence of infection caused by a specific agent in a defined geographical area as a result of deliberate efforts; continued measures to prevent re-establishment of transmission are required. Example: measles, poliomyelitis.

>Eradication: Permanent reduction to zero of the worldwide incidence of infection caused by a specific agent as a result of deliberate efforts; intervention measures are no longer needed. Example: smallpox.

>Extinction: The specific infectious agent no longer exists in nature or in the laboratory. Example: none

[topspin]

"We can do the same with covid"

Do you have any evidence for this claim? It shouldn't need to be pointed out that COVID is vastly more contagious than TB. What sort of tracing system do you imagine implementing to achieve containment? You'd probably need a video record of every waking moment of every soul, subject to instantaneous remote analysis by authorities. And now the deer as well...

[jmopp]

Right now, track and trace is ineffective because cases are high. In the Netherlands, we can only trace the source of a quarter of infections. [1] If cases are brought down, track and trace has an easier workload and thus can be more effective.

We don't need draconian restrictions, just sensible ones. Wear a mask, get vaccinated, test yourself regularly. Many small measures combined have a big effect in aggregate. The only reason we have to resort to the draconian measures is because people are unwilling to do the basic measures.

[1] https://www.rivm.nl/coronavirus-covid-19/actueel/wekelijkse-... (In Dutch, the linked PDF has a table of track and trace for this past week on page 27)

[makomk]

Test and trace never worked nearly as effectively against Covid as the media claimed. I don't know about the Netherlands, but here in the UK the media coverage was pretty much outright lying about how well it worked in South Korea to convince us our government was incompetent and had failed, saying it let them achieve things like lifting social distancing restrictions and reopening bars and clubs pre-vaccine when in reality every time they tried that cases immediately went exponential and they had to reimpose the restrictions. Even the countries which were pursuing zero covid with some success had to rely on repeated, strict lockdowns to achieve that (and most of them have given up on that now).

And it's been much more effective pretty much everywhere at preventing Covid getting in than it has once it's endemic in a country - reducing the number of cases doesn't help much if there are undetected infections, and the difficulty of finding those doesn't really scale down much with the number of cases or infections since they could be almost anywhere in the population.

[nradov]

We don't have to resort to draconian measures. Those are purely a political choice.

[yorwba]

> What sort of tracing system do you imagine implementing to achieve containment?

Ask Taiwan? They had 39 cases in the past week, only two of which were local, and the latest of those was six days ago. https://www.cdc.gov.tw/Bulletin/List/MmgtpeidAR5Ooai4-fgHzQ

Of course they've never had more than 554 cases in a day, so it was a bit easier to get down from the peak. In most other countries people don't seem to have the patience to keep up countermeasures for long enough to achieve local elimination.

[topspin]

> Ask Taiwan?

I don't need to. I'm well aware of how Taiwan achieves this; near absolute control of travel to and from the island, implemented early and with no meaningful political opposition. That window closed for the US by Jan. 2019 while certain parties were still screaming "Xenophobe!" at modest and insufficient travel restrictions.

The question at hand is how NPR -- or anyone else for that matter -- imagines this happening in the US. Large numbers of people literally sneak into this country on foot every day and impeding them (for any reason at all, never mind COVID) is a monumental political issue, as just one example of what separates the US from Taiwan.

[danbruc]

I assume "Xenophobe!" is a reference to this [1].

[1] https://www.politifact.com/factchecks/2020/oct/23/donald-tru...

[LurkingPenguin]

I live in Taiwan and while there's much to be lauded about the way the government here has handled the pandemic, the current situation is not sustainable.

Taiwan's case numbers are low because the borders are effectively sealed shut. With few exceptions, only citizens and residents can enter the country. Upon return, everyone is required to do 14 days of quarantine in a centralized quarantine facility or in a quarantine hotel at their own expense. When I did it, I paid close to $2,000 USD for the 14 days.

Chinese New Year is coming up and there isn't enough quarantine hotel capacity, so the government is preparing to announce some loosening of the restrictions, like 7 days of quarantine in a centralized facility plus 7 at home for the fully vaccinated.

Economically, many local businesses have been hurt by almost 2 years of closed borders. Some have gone out of business. Save for the quarantine hotels, which are making a killing, tourism has been devastated at a time when it would be really helpful for Taiwan to be not isolated from the rest of the world.

The big problem is that, looking at highly-vaccinated countries like Singapore and Israel, it's clear that once the borders open, the virus will get in. Fully vaccinated people will get and spread the virus and some percentage of individuals in high-risk groups are likely to get very sick and die even if they've been vaccinated. Taiwan had a very high CFR when it had its mini outbreak in May, which reflects the fact that there are a lot of old, not so healthy people here for the virus to run through.

I wouldn't suggest that Taiwan should have just thrown caution to the wind and opened the borders before vaccination rates were higher, but at some point, continuing with a 0 COVID strategy is just delaying the inevitable at a higher and higher cost.

[throwaway894345]

Shakes fist. Why can't my government be as good as those of $ISLAND_NATION?!

Seriously though, we went over this with Australia and New Zealand. It's much easier to control your borders and keep cases low when there are fewer points of entry with existing screening infrastructure.

[GaryTang]

At this point, as conspiratorially as it sounds, I think this is exactly what the powers that be intend.

[Jansen312]

That is basically zero covid strategy. You need to be lucky that 1. Virus don't change like smallpox and polio (not true for covid). 2. Vaccines stop infection or herd immunity is a thing (not true for covid) 3. Virus evolves into less virulent form and less transmissive (at this moment it is the reverse for covid). Next year we will see how well zero covid strategy plays out in China.