Do you think chips in the 10k-100k transistor range will some day be able to be produced by hobbyists? Or are the chemicals simply too dangerous and machines too expensive to be affordable at that scale?
No, I don't think so. But it's not because of the chemicals or machines. There's not really any demand for it. Most hobbyist "ICs" are fully digital and can already be realized on an FPGA. For simpler applications, you can probably program a microcontroller to do what you want.
Integrated circuits are appealing to industry because they're integrated - they can be smaller and they reduce cost (long term; still need the upfront investment). These are important things for many products, especially in RF, but they aren't really driving factors for hobbyists.
I think it probably depends on what "produced" means here.
If it means designs inside an EDA environment, design get submitted and shows up realized, then that is possible now. And it's not all that expensive. eFabless chip ignite is quoting ~$10K for 100 QFNs in 130nm. That's getting into beater car territory. https://efabless.com/chipignite/2110C
If it means actually fabricate then I think there is no way because a DIY won't have the scale to compete on price and they won't be able to bring any custom processing step to justify being at boutique scale. Think about PCBs. We used to make them ourselves with chemical etch. Now I don't even use breadboards because a custom bare fab is $5 and the components cost more than that. I also get a much better electrical result, and it doesn't fall apart if I look at it funny.
The main problem with ASICs is the amount of skill/time that it takes to do it right. Floor planning, track planning, closing timing, etc. etc. on an ASIC is much harder than an FPGA. You don't even have to do half those things on an FPGA.
With an FPGA one can almost get compile and go if you're willing to be loose on area and performance. ASIC CAD tooling is no where near that at the moment. Closed or open source.
Yeah, I saw and am amazed by his work, which made me wonder whether chip manufacturing could get as streamlined, compact and mainstream as 3d printing is today!
I think the first step is making EDA (electronic design automation) more accessible. Right now, even if you could do the fabrication yourself, doing a real, useful design would be just as challenging because the tools are all proprietary and expensive.
Because Europeans are afraid of everything. I was trying to avoid a comment that seemed politically charged but I don't know any other way to say it.
I was into hobby chemistry for a while -- people trying to do anything in the EU find it almost impossible. Poland and Eastern Europe are better about it, but eh.
Even in the US, chemistry is avoided and even deplored. Where are the Christmas chemistry sets of yore? People are scared to death by anything having to do with “chemistry”, yet they think nothing of jumping into brewing.
Being scared and being banned are two separate things. If you want to see how many dangerous chemicals are available online in US see Cody's lab or NileRed.
Integrated circuits are appealing to industry because they're integrated - they can be smaller and they reduce cost (long term; still need the upfront investment). These are important things for many products, especially in RF, but they aren't really driving factors for hobbyists.
That being said, people are trying! http://sam.zeloof.xyz/second-ic/