[fanzhang]

Your hypothesis of "bullwhip effect" would predict that global inventories are increasing (thus causing a surge in demand). However it doesn't square with all the graphs in the article that show inventories across the world at global lows.

Overall, I believe the Bridgewater story to be more correct.

[Scandiravian]

I don't think the bullwhip would predict global inventory increases, quiet the opposite from how I read the parent post.

The article shows global lows for raw materials, but production for China is up 20% and exports are 40% higher.

I can't find any reference to retail inventories in the article, but I think some of the stock could be found there - though I imagine that a lot of it could simply be stuck in transit.

I think you and OP agrees - the parent post tries to answer the why of the situation, which the article doesn't spend much/any time on