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by ra7 1688 days ago
You make good points. I don't disagree that there are tons of edge cases and it could take a while. I mostly disagreed with the examples of edge cases that you think makes it hard. Quite a few of them can be solved with an up-to-date HD map (missing lane marking, construction zones, 1-way streets) and there is evidence of Waymo handling pedestrians and other complex scenarios well.

NYC is definitely a harder problem. But Waymo's progress so far has been impressive and they have really solid technology from what I have followed all these years, so I'm pretty confident they can reasonably crack NYC. Your comment just sounded a bit too pessimistic for me is all :)
1 comments
StanislavPetrov 1688 days ago
>Quite a few of them can be solved with an up-to-date HD map (missing lane marking, construction zones, 1-way streets)

How do you keep these maps up to date in NYC when lane markings, construction zones, traffic flow, construction and a variety of other things are constantly changing on a daily basis? How do you deal with the ubiquitous "traffic cops" who stand in the center of many intersections and arbitrarily wave traffic in different directions?

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ra7 1688 days ago
Waymo claims their cars can detect environment changes and share it with the rest of the fleet in real time, with most of the map update process automated. They've written a blog post on this topic: https://blog.waymo.com/2020/09/the-waymo-driver-handbook-map...

As for traffic cops, here's a video of Waymo obeying hand signals: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=OopTOjnD3qY. No reason this couldn't be replicated in NYC as well with some improvements.

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StanislavPetrov 1687 days ago
>As for traffic cops, here's a video of Waymo obeying hand signals: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=OopTOjnD3qY. No reason this couldn't be replicated in NYC as well with some improvements.

This is an incredibly idealized version of "traffic cop" that doesn't exist in NYC. Here's an extremely well disciplined example of a traffic cop in NYC. They don't stand in one place, they are constantly challenged by traffic from all direction, they sometimes stop certain lanes, and tell other ones to go, with all sorts of gestures. And this is only a 4 way intersection without much traffic, and without any construction or significant pedestrian traffic. Its one thing to program an AI car that can drive under idealized, predictable conditions and entirely another to drive in the chaos of the real world, especially NYC.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=m2Z7jS3Yb5Q

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ra7 1687 days ago
These self driving companies are actively trying to solve these difficult problems, so it's not impossible just because it's NYC. If they can go from zero to driving in SF, they can solve the SF to NYC complexity.
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ximeng 1687 days ago
https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=68n4RjGhvRw Has Tesla handling some construction. Not quite there but in theory these cars should handle these situations much like people do - have an expectation of the road layout and adjust based on what they see in reality.
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StanislavPetrov 1687 days ago
I'm not trying to be condescending, but I think there is a disconnect between the chaos of NYC streets and footage like what is in this video. How does an AI car that is programmed to maintain its lane, operate safely and obey traffic rules operate in an environment where there are no lanes or traffic rules? People in NYC zoom around and honk the horn and cut each other off without regard to traffic rules (aside from the red light and speed cameras). With bikers and mopeds regularly speeding the wrong way down one way streets and weaving in between traffic and slow moving/stopped cars. It just seems like an impossibility to me as someone who has driven in NYC for decades. I will tip my cap to anyone who can ever design an AI vehicle that can safely and efficiently navigate NYC traffic.
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rsj_hn 1687 days ago
> How does an AI car that is programmed to maintain its lane, operate safely and obey traffic rules operate in an environment where there are no lanes or traffic rules? People in NYC zoom around and honk the horn and cut each other off without regard to traffic rules

These are all good points, which is why I want to see this test happen. Maybe Waymo can handle it, maybe not -- but this is very useful info to measure the state of the art of a market leader (which I assume Waymo to be).

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StanislavPetrov 1687 days ago
It will be interesting that's for sure.
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