[ufhghfggf]

Curiously it still "predicted" the early 2020 COVID recession gray bar, but it of course could not have predicted it before Wuhan's patient zero, so I guess it has a way of being sometimes lucky. (Or, if the chart truly is to be believed by its faithful, then the early 2020 recession would have happened even without COVID.)

[blitzar]

The 2020 covid recession started in q3 19 - markets were being propped up with extra liquidity, rate hikes by the fed were abandoned earlier in the year and they had started cutting rates again. If you are cutting interest rates that is not a healthy economy, and a late 2019 / 2020 downturn was pretty widely predicted before covid existed.

Without covid, and the truly massive global stimulus that was pumped in, we may have seen just as much downside in stocks without the rapid rebound and valuations half what they are now.