[gilch]

Nassim Taleb’s Barbell strategy has really changed my thinking on this. In a nutshell, you put 85-90% of your portfolio in super conservative low-risk investments that at least beat inflation, 10-15% in aggressive speculation with very high potential payoffs (like WSB short squeezes), and nothing in the middle!

Why? Black Swans. Taleb says:

"If you know that you are vulnerable to prediction errors, and accept that most risk measures are flawed, then your strategy is to be as hyper-conservative and hyper-aggressive as you can be, instead of being mildly aggressive or conservative."

The "moderate middle" isn't as safe as you think it is, thus, it's not compensating you enough for the risk. The conservative side of the barbell will protect you from a negative black swan, and the aggressive side will expose you to positive ones.