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by msis
1689 days ago
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Disclaimer: I'm the founder of blkSAIL (black sail) that builds AI and autonomy for ocean-going maritime ships. We are an MIT CSAIL spinoff. We started with an aim to become Uber for the waterways, then pivoted to large ships.
Many of the comments below touch on many key points: (1) most commercial ships have a crew between 8 to 20, (2) auto-pilot in ships exist since the GPS was invented, (3) when ship hits the fan, there's not much you can do. (1) Autonomy in maritime is not to replace seafarers, the navigation crew is less than 30% of the crew. And crew is negligible OPEX compared to fuel etc. (2) Because the industry is the backbone of global trade, it moves much slower in adopting technology for the sake of technology. However, when there's a simple reliable system that can clear benefit, the adoption happens. So given that there's few[1] lanes in the ocean, you can easily go from one waypoint to the next. (3) Onboard a ship, there's no such thing as breaks. In most cases, you know about a collision or a grounding 12+ minutes in advance. The challenge is in getting the predictions right and abide by the rules of the road. Most advanced LIDAR have 1km range, which is too close, cameras don't see much neither[2]. [1]: there are quite few channels around ports to ease traffic that are one-way. [2]: the resolution is too low to see far out. When using zoom, the stabilization is a nightmare. |
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As someone who works in the autonomous ship space now and a prior merchant mariner, I agree with a lot of what you state, except for point 1...
In the near term, yes, I agree that people are working to use autonomy to augment the bridge crew (and engine crew and ship owners for that matter). However, in the long run (and there are actually several prototype autonomous vessels on the water today), the ultimate goal is absolutely to eliminate the need for a human crew.
Reasons... The biggest driver is that much of the design of ships is driven by the fact that human crews are embarked. There are too many items to list, but human factors include the ship superstructure (living qarters/bridge/galley/sanitation), freshwater generation, HVAC (a large chunk of energy costs, safety provisions, medical, and on and on. Other drivers are 1.) Human safety, 2.) Asset (ship & cargo) safety, 3.) Litigation avoidance/lower crew/cargo insurance/underwriting - which relate to 1 and 2 (e.g. collisions into other ships, piers, or getting your ship wedged in a canal). Many maritime incidents are the result of human error.
To the naiive, it may seem that autonomous operation at sea is easier than driving autonomously on land. However, the lay person may not realize that ships come in a variety of shaps/sizes and maneuvering abilities (for different functions including ferries, tankers, containerships, taxis, navy vessels, barges, cruise ships, etc.), communicate via complex bridge-to-bridge communications, navigate using a variety of floating/light/radio indicators, and are very sensitive from a stability and structural soundness perspective to weather (seastate, wind, currents, etc), among many other complex constraints. Thanks to inertia and the large absence of "traction", large ships don't stop instantaneously, they have a stopping distance which can be over 4 nautical miles [1] !
Driving cars autonomously is very difficult, but driving ships autonomously is just as difficult, if not more so.
1. https://knowledgeofsea.com/stopping-distance-turning-circle-...