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by m0zg
1693 days ago
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You're making the same mistake as everyone else: thinking that your in-domain predictions will hold out-of-domain. They won't. That's all I'm telling you. Believe what you want to believe. I believe that when things get really out of hand (which is where they seem to be headed at the moment), all your best case predictions are almost certainly wrong, and the fundamental inflation-protected value discussion moves to the forefront. That is, paper is worth nothing. Physical assets are worth something. And this time around, non-inflationary digital assets might be worth something too, as long as enough people believe in them enough to use them as a payment instrument. If dollar starts crapping out, that money has to go somewhere. It can go into assets (inconvenient, poorly fungible), or blockchain (convenient, more fungible), or, realistically, a combination of both. What can we predict from this? Truly stratospheric real estate and land prices for one thing (hence Gates and Black Rock), as well as stratospheric price of crypto. But most important issue at hand is your insistence that it "can't happen here". It can. You will see it for yourself over the next 2-3 years. You can't do what the Fed did and experience no repercussions. Keep believing what you believe, I'll take the other end of your bets. |
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This is tinfoil hat economics. It's no better than the man at the corner yelling that I should repent before the rapture. It's coming this time, I swear, he yells into his megaphone. This time is different, he repeats more and more aggressively.
> I believe that when things get really out of hand (which is where they seem to be headed at the moment)...
Again, you have no basis to make that claim other than the big bad fed making the number of money in circulation go up and you believe they can't make the number go down even though they can.
> Physical assets are worth something. And this time around, non-inflationary digital assets might be worth something too, as long as enough people believe in them enough to use them as a payment instrument.
Yes the magical power of belief. Which is all you have, as Bitcoin only supports 2-3 transactions per second, enough to support a small Costco, not a global economy.
> Truly stratospheric real estate and land prices for one thing (hence Gates and Black Rock), as well as stratospheric price of crypto.
Again, Gates is buying farms and you're speculating about Blackrock even though I provided you a much more reasonable alternate narrative. They're buying fundamentally different kinds of land for fundamentally different reasons and purposes.
> But most important issue at hand is your insistence that it "can't happen here". It can. You will see it for yourself over the next 2-3 years.
Ok cool, so no evidence of this either, just your gut. I'm not saying it can't, anything can happen. I'm saying there's no reason to believe it will, certainly not in the next 2-3 years, just as folks said in 2008. But instead of a cataclysm we got bailout loans repaid for substantial profits - and a Fed happily unwinding its balance sheet without issue until, you know, COVID.
> You can't do what the Fed did and experience no repercussions.
Again, no basis for this assertion. And they can reduce the supply at their discretion. Because there's no printer. They control the demand for fractional reserve loans by managing interest rates, and they control the supply by adjusting reserve rates. They brought the money into the world and they can just as well take it back out.
> Keep believing what you believe, I'll take the other end of your bets.
Ok, again.
You haven't refuted a single point I've made, just re-asserted yours each time with less basis.
It's some combination of Gish gallop and a motte-and-bailey I think.