[nebula8804]

>But my theory with petroleum is that it has so many HUGE economies of scale built into its production that a demand collapse will send it into a rapid tailspin.

THIS! Thank you for bringing this up. Few people talk about this coming death spiral. This is really going to mess up a lot of countries incomes and may have severe worldwide political ramifications. In your opinion when do you think it will trigger? It feels like when it does actually happen, its going to happen quickly. From my vantage point in the US it still seems like the majority are not realizing what is coming. Hell Companies like Ford are still introducing new vehicle platforms in ICE configuration only (Ford Bronco for example) and people are buying them up without any consideration as to the future so I suspect it won't happen this decade.

I don't know enough about the economics of the fossil fuels supply chain to make a reasonable calculation.

In terms of your other calculations your targets seems very reasonable. Its amazing at how Tesla is iterating so fast on things like Battery and Motor design. Its super sexy to see the new stuff they keep pumping out(even if the founder seems like a jerk)