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by spookthesunset 1700 days ago
> And we know the official death counts is under-counted by a 4x-10x factor.

Or it could be overcounted by a sizable chunk too. Nobody really knows the actual count and we probably won't until the dust settles and cooler heads prevail. The only thing we can do at this point is take the numbers we have at face value.
2 comments
vessenes 1700 days ago
It would be very surprising if death counts were overcounted by a lot, because excess mortality rates have spiked massively since COVID-19 hit the scene, and in general are higher than the COVID-19 reported death rates.

So, for it to be overcounted, you would need to have an explanation for the reason that not just the recent excess deaths not attributed to COVID-19 have jumped so much, but that the 'real' causes of death have overshot and bit into the COVID numbers.

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YossarianFrPrez 1700 days ago
Yes, that is a possibility. But given the data on excess mortality, it seems unlikely.

The Economist has a model worth checking out: https://www.economist.com/graphic-detail/coronavirus-excess-...

Also, I agree that focusing on the face-value numbers is a good call, practically speaking.

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