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by rsj_hn
1692 days ago
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I am not really worried about peak oil, and if I was, I'm not sure how driving to LA would really improve that situation. People have been worrying about Peak Oil since the 70s, and none of these dire predictions have come to pass. You would think at some point they would give up on the collapse narratives, but for a minority of people these doomsday predictions have a strong appeal. Here I include both "climate collapse" as well as oil collapse, population collapse, and any other collapse narrative in the bucket. I think we lost something when we no longer have monastaries in which people whip themselves, because it clearly meets a deep psychological need. New technologies come online to replace old tech in terms of fossil fuel extraction, more efficient uses of fossil fuels, and replacement forms of energy as we run out. Big progress is being made in all three areas at the same time, and oil remains remarkably cheap in inflation-adjusted terms. That's not to say that 100 years from now we will keep digging fuels up from the ground and burning them. Who knows what will power the future? But something will power it. The planes will keep flying, and they will be cheaper and more frequent than today, just as some unhappy people will keep insisting that the sky is falling. The future is one of energy abundance, and constantly improving transportation technology. |
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All I’m saying is that if we continue at this rate of carbon emissions, even only 10years, nevermind 30years (the time to develop and scale zero emissions planes, which has barely started) the planet will definitely see changes that won’t be nice. We are talking “Areas hosting 1B people today will see unsurvivable wet-bulb temperatures more than 100 days each year”. Mass migrations won’t be pretty.
The choice we are facing for the next 20 years is: Prepare your low carbon energy transition HARD, or prepare some damn solid walls around your country.