[rich_sasha]

That’s true. But also, presumably, these companies outsourced their supply chains etc because it was (or seemed) profitable.

There is still a disconnect for me. First everyone outsources, apparently successfully for automotive, and that’s great, all these joint ventures between car makers etc. Then Tesl comes along, integrates everything, and poof that’s also good..?

[jjeaff]

I'm guessing the automotive industry benefited more from outsourcing because they were heavily unionized. Outsourcing parts allowed them to get the parts from sub-contractors that didn't have to pay union wages.

Tesla started much later and didn't have this problem.

[rich_sasha]

So is Tesla another labour rights arbitrage at heart? That would make me sad.

It feels to me that even taking the company at face value, this valuation is just silly. And I thought that for years, so clearly as a short-seller I’d be toast. But the more the price levitates, the more unreal it feels.

[panick21_]

No it isn't. The difference between union and non union is far smaller then people have in the idealistic fantasies.

Tesla employees are payed just as well, and with stock options they actually historically have been paid WAY, WAY better.

The thing about Tesla is that its forward looking for a long time since they have a stable leadership with a clear long term plan. This leadership has been leading the company for more then a decade and all their plans have worked out.

Tesla now certainty is worth now what they were valued at a few years ago.

For myself, I would already consider electric flight as part of their future revenue. Its a logical next step but it will take 10 years. Of course I can understand that other people think this is crazy. But flat out, for me, I see them growing 50% a year for many more years with no end in sight.

[sofixa]

> For myself, I would already consider electric flight as part of their future revenue. Its a logical next step but it will take 10 years. Of course I can understand that other people think this is crazy

That's extremely unrealistic. The aeroplane industry is extremely complex, and there are heavy regulations where (hopefully) Tesla's "move fast and break things" + use commercial grade stuff and refuse warranty ( was it the chips in their screens or the screens themselves in some models that were not made for constant use in a car) approach won't fly. 10 years is a decent development time for a plane, if you skip the parts that Tesla have no experience with it and there'd be plenty of R&D to make them work. For reference, Bombardier, a company with decades of aeronautics experience and an established supply chain, started work on the C-Series in 2004. First flight was in 2014, first commercial service in 2016, and it nearly banrkupted them. Unless Tesla are already currently working on an electric airplane, i call bullshit on them having one in 10 years. Considering they already have the truck and semi which are oversold and underdelivered/delayed, do you think they have the capacity to tackle such a huge undertaking any time soon?

As to your other comment that Airbus won't do it - they've been on it since 2010:

https://www.airbus.com/innovation/zero-emission/electric-fli...

If one of the biggest companies in aviation has been working on it for a decade and doesn't have anything commercially viable yet to show for it, and estimate it will take them another decade for this, what makes you think a company with no aeronautics experience and history of overpromising and underdelivering can do it all in a decade?

[panick21_]

> That's extremely unrealistic. The aeroplane industry is extremely complex, and there are heavy regulations where (hopefully) Tesla's "move fast and break things" + use commercial grade stuff and refuse warranty ( was it the chips in their screens or the screens themselves in some models that were not made for constant use in a car) approach won't fly.

People said the same about SpaceX. And yet they beat everybody. Tesla already works with SpaceX in a number of ways.

Do you think Musk or Tesla are not able to adjust to different industry? Are they so bull headed that they will say 'we make cars like this therefore we make planes like this'.

Tesla and SpaceX working together have the technologies required and the financials to do it, and just as important, the will to do it.

> was it the chips in their screens or the screens themselves in some models that were not made for constant use in a car

That this is still the example of 'look at this terrible company' is just embracing. A relatively young company on its first mass produced car made a mistake. Therefore for the rest of history they can never accomplish anything and they will forever be known as 'the company that selected the wrong screen'.

> it nearly banrkupted them

Tesla has better finances and ability to raise money.

> Unless Tesla are already currently working on an electric airplane, i call bullshit on them having one in 10 years.

Maybe that is the case, I don't have a fixed timeline. What I care more about is who will have it first, who makes the best and at what price can they produce them.

I don't think the existing companies will push hard enough.

I do think they are already working on battery chemistry needed for the airplanes. That is very much most difficult and unknown part about electric flight.

> Considering they already have the truck and semi which are oversold and underdelivered/delayed

The primary issue is battery supply. More products with a fixed amount of battery-supply does not mean you make more money. Overcoming battery supply and improving battery quality is the primary task right now.

> As to your other comment that Airbus won't do it - they've been on it since 2010:

Just as existing car manufactures had been working on EV since the 1970s. I think they are adopting some wrong strategies and they have very little intensive to kill their existing business.

The German car manufactures were still committing Disel gate when Tesla was producing EVs.

> estimate it will take them another decade for this, what makes you think a company with no aeronautics experience and

Maybe my estimate is wrong, but the earnings potential is there even if it takes longer. And Musk and SpaceX have lots experience.

How much experience did Tesla have in battery design and battery manufacturing 10 years ago? Almost non. 10 years later they literally have the highest output and fastest battery manufacturing line in human history producing their own cells with their own chemistries.

How much experience did SpaceX have with space capsule designs? Non in 2009 and in 2020 they launched humans. Lets consider relanding rockets, in 2011 they started working on it, they did it in 2016 and its totally routine now.

You can do amazing things if you have the will, the financials and the people to put behind an effort.

> history of overpromising and underdelivering can do it all in a decade?

People are so obsessed with that. They under-deliver because the promise insanely ambitious things. And even when the underdeliver, the results are still great. Should I be mad that they didn't deliver the Semi yet when instead the manage 50% YoY growth without it?

Why is nobody impressed that they are hitting their buissness targets WITHOUT interducing new products. That seem to be totally ignored, specially when 'lack of demand' was the main criticism of Tesla for a long time.

As it was with the Model 3, first people believe it want happen. Then when it does people say it wont scale. And then it will come on big. The Semi when it comes out will be just as demand constraint as rest of Tesla cars. Tesla will be a huge part of the global Semi market, I have little question about that. Its not like the other players in that space are rolling out massive amounts of electric semis yet either.

And anyways everybody will be battery constraint so for everybody Semi in large rollout will be tricky for everybody.

Again, I don't care if people don't agree with any of this. I don't give investing advice. Don't gamble with money I can't lose. There is a big chance this wont happen.

[penjelly]

youre right that at least one person thinks thats crazy. Strange how we all see what we want to see in the end. Myself included.

[panick21_]

My thing is that I invested where the stock was way lower, so even if it goes down a large amount I am in the black.

I simply believe in leadership, no company with Elon as a CEO has really failed to grow. The closest is maybe Solarcity but he was not CEO.

Tesla threw Elon has strong connection with SpaceX. They already share material science. SpaceX uses Tesla battery technology. The connection is strong. Electric flight (not flying taxis) is a clear next step for both companies and Elon has been wanting to do it for a decade. It will take another 3-5 years before this is a serious project, but I don't think any other company is really up to it. Boeing and Airbus are not gone do it.

Until then I see continue 50% growth for a long while based on EV and Storage.

If Self-Driving works out, its massive. I am not counting on that. Even just as a advanced level 2 system its a great asset. But if it works out, the potential value is huge.