[InitialLastName]

Presidents are tricky because (recent circumstances excluded) US voters don't tend to reward people who have been in the public eye for a long time with the presidency. Looking at recent presidents, almost none were in nationally visible political offices 20+ years before their elections (though a number were famous outside of politics). The 20th/21st century presidents, and their situation 20 years before election (it would have taken a hell of an eye even identify any but Biden, Trump and Reagan):

- Biden (2000): 27th year in the US Senate

- Trump (1996): Tabloid-famous real estate developer

- Obama (1988): First year at Harvard Law School

- W. Bush (1980): Oil executive son of the VP-elect

- Clinton (1972): Arkansas Attorney General-elect

- H.W. Bush (1968): 1st-year US House Rep

- Reagan (1960): President of the Screen Actors Guild, movie star

- Carter (1956): Farmer, son of a briefly seated US House Rep

- Ford (never elected, 1954): 5th-year US House Rep

- Nixon (1948): 2-year US House Rep

- Johnson (as elected VP, 1940): 3-year US House Rep

- Kennedy (1941): US Navy Officer, son of Ambassador to the U.K.

- Eisenhower (1932): Executive officer to the Deputy Chief of Staff of the Army

- Truman (1924): Former county court judge

- F.D. Roosevelt (1913): former 3-year senator, Assistant secretary of the Navy, Ex-president's cousin

- Hoover (1909): Successful mining engineer

- Coolidge (1900): City Solicitor of Northampton MA

- Harding (1900): 1st-year Ohio State Senator

- Wilson (1892): Head of the Princeton Political Science department

- Taft (1888): Judge in the Superior Court of Cincinnati, son of an ex-cabinet secretary

- T. Roosevelt (1880): New college grad, heir to a family fortune.

[adolph]

To be fair to Carter, he was also a US Navy Officer in 1956 with a more distinguished career than Kennedy at 1941.

President James Earl "Jimmy" Carter graduated from the Naval Academy in 1946 with distinction, after which he was assigned to USS Wyoming (E-AG 17) as an ensign. After completing two years of surface ship duty, Carter applied for submarine duty. He served as executive officer, engineering officer, and electronics repair officer on the submarine SSK-1. When Admiral Hyman G. Rickover (then a captain) started his program to create nuclear-powered submarines, Carter wanted to join the program and was interviewed and selected by Rickover. Carter was promoted to lieutenant and from 3 November 1952 to 1 March 1953, he served on temporary duty with the Naval Reactors Branch, U.S. Atomic Energy Commission, Washington, D.C., to assist "in the design and development of nuclear propulsion plants for naval vessels."

From 1 March to 8 October 1953, Carter was preparing to become the engineering officer for USS Seawolf (SSN-575), one of the first submarines to operate on atomic power. However, when his father died in July 1953 Carter resigned from the Navy and returned to Georgia to manage his family interests. Carter was honorably discharged on 9 October 1953 and transferred to the retired reserve at his request with the rank of lieutenant.

https://www.history.navy.mil/browse-by-topic/people/presiden...

[InitialLastName]

Agreed, it perhaps doesn't represent his career up to that point. I ran into a few issues like this; his career was distinguished but he had left active duty by the time of the snapshot I was taking (I also didn't see any evidence that it had made him visible to anyone as a potential presidential candidate, which was the thesis of the comment).

I also omitted that Teddy Roosevelt was about to publish a book on the War of 1812, and that Hoover had published a widely-used textbook on mining engineering.

[mywittyname]

If you look at the set of VPs, Governors, notable Senators, and people who've previously run for president, you get a pretty good list of candidates. Sure, you'll miss odd-balls like Obama, but he was still a Senator; he just got lucky with timing and probably expected his bid for presidency to occur in like 2020-2024.

Future presidents might be someone like, Paul Ryan, AOC, Gretchen Whitmer, Chris Christie, Antony Blinken.

[dragonwriter]

> If you look at the set of VPs, Governors, notable Senators, and people who've previously run for president, you get a pretty good list of candidates.

Interesting, then that of your list:

> Future presidents might be someone like, Paul Ryan, AOC, Gretchen Whitmer, Chris Christie, Antony Blinken.

3/5 are not covered by ”VPs, Governors, notable Senators, and people who've previously run for president”.

[InitialLastName]

My point is that the intersection of people who become president and had been VP's, Governers, Senators or previously run for president (20 years before) in the modern era is 2 (out of the last 21 presidents). I didn't go through and look at other major candidates, but the other major candidates didn't get elected; my sense is that the losing candidates, at least recently, have been more experienced politicians (hence, "Americans don't elect people who have been in the public eye for a long time"). Trump, Obama, W. Bush, Clinton, Reagan and Carter all got elected as "outsiders" against clearly more experienced establishment politicians.

An interesting thing I noticed going through that list, though, is that a much larger number of presidents came into a more visible position (such as the ones you mentioned) by T-15 years. It seems (and in fact this somewhat mirrors other leadership-oriented career paths) that ~15 years of visibility and experience (usually preceded by a local politics, private sector, or military career to build a network) is roughly optimal for a presidential career path.

[InitialLastName]

I want to add:

10 years out, that selection criteria (VP's, governors, senators, former presidential candidates) would (as far as I can tell) have missed Trump, Obama, W. Bush, Clinton (narrowly), H.W. Bush, Carter, Ford, Kennedy, Eisenhower, Truman, F.D. Roosevelt, Hoover, Coolidge, Harding, Wilson, Taft, and T. Roosevelt, so 17/21 of the people who actually became president.