[yumraj]

Yup. Even at 1 in every 1 million systems, that could be 100,000 systems with life.

Or, even at 1 in every 10 million, that could be 10,000 systems with life.

In a way I hate these photos. It's like showing a kid an ultra delicious looking candy, but telling them that they will not be able to taste it in their lifetime.

[zokier]

But for all we know the odds could be 1 in every 100 billion; we have no way of knowing, almost any guess you'd make is equally unfounded.

[p1necone]

It's like the one tank variant of the German tank problem[0], except the tanks aren't even numbered.

[0]https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/German_tank_problem

[dylan604]

The scary (sad) thing to me is that it could be 1 of 1.

[mensetmanusman]

What are the odds we are the only one?

[wahern]

Nobody can tell you without pulling numbers out of thin air. That's the point. The only thing that can be said is that the probability of intelligent life arising is greater than 0, which follows from our own existence. Beyond that, any claims about the likelihood of intelligent life are just 20th and 21st century versions of "there must be a God because the universe couldn't have arisen by chance."

[omnicognate]

Strictly speaking our own existence doesn't even tell us the probability is greater than zero. For an event to have probability zero doesn't imply it can't occur. If a number is chosen from a uniform distribution on the reals between zero and one, whatever the result is the probability of that exact result occurring was zero.

[dotancohen]

  > For an event to have probability zero doesn't imply it can't occur.

The distinction in meaningless. We exist, ergo intelligent life can develop in this universe.

[omnicognate]

> The distinction in meaningless. We exist, ergo intelligent life can develop in this universe.

I didn't say anything contrary to this. I was just pointing out an interesting detail about probability theory.

It's impolite to edit your comment in such a way as to turn its existing replies into non-sequiturs. For the record, this comment initially cast doubt on the claim about zero probability events, hence the reply saying it was correct.

[danbruc]

It is correct, if you split 100% across infinitely many possible outcomes, each outcome will have probability zero, still one of the possible outcomes will occur.

[mensetmanusman]

The universe became conscious in the form of man and asked ‘who made me’ so it’s the universe arguing with the universe about a creator :)

[micromacrofoot]

the candy might also be filled with razors and end all life on our planet though

[yumraj]

Oh crap, now not only do I have to live in disappointment that I won't get to eat the candy, I also have to live in fear that the candy monster might come by and eat me.

Sad and Scared... my life is over...

[micromacrofoot]

well, guess we should spend our whole lives praying just in case

[dylan604]

oh man, has the news been running halloween stories in your area again?