[vlovich123]

Hmmm… I‘ve heard conflicting sources on this and that studies show that SF homeless don’t have a higher degree of having moved from elsewhere. The vast majority has been here a considerable amount of time. Maybe I’m misremembering though.

[zemvpferreira]

Pulling a 2019 source from wikipedia, over 30% of San Francisco's homeless recently came from outside San Francisco, and only 50% had lived in San Francisco longer than 10 years before most recently becoming homeless:

https://hsh.sfgov.org/wp-content/uploads/2020/01/2019HIRDRep...

[vlovich123]

That seems like a far cry from the exponential growth described where you house one homeless person and 2 appear.

[new_realist]

They’re not incompatible statements. The easier it is to be homeless, the more homeless you get. That’s different from where they come from.

[vlovich123]

Not sure I follow. If the homeless aren't coming from elsewhere, then the "ease" would have to be that people on the margins would be choosing to be homeless instead. However, if that's the case, then why would NYC be immune to this effect? After all, they have way more shelters than SF, rents are just as sky high, and SF residents typically have a higher income than their NYC counterparts meaning there should be fewer people at the margins.

[vkou]

Or maybe the easier it is to end up homeless, the more homeless you get.

Between wages and housing costs, it's unclear to me how ~half of SF isn't homeless.

I'm not sure people whose goal in life is living in a tent under the freeway exist in any significant numbers outside of the imagination of libertarians.