[LurkingPenguin]

2 years' worth of Christmas ornaments? 10 years' worth?

The amount of crap that we consume is astounding. And in many cases, each specific type of crap requires a bunch of smaller crap (components).

There is literally no way for a consumption-driven society as broad and deep as ours to stockpile years' worth of everything.

[archildress]

All planning really is based on assumptions, like safety stock levels. In organizations you typically have someone who decides "hey, this is the right level of inventory to keep, based on our demand right now." That's not a bad approach, but the problem is a lot of supply chain planning is top-down and dictates "we only want to keep $x tied up in inventory" and as you can imagine that number is driven by management as low as possible. When COVID happened last year, levels were slashed so low and now the supply chains can't recover.

Basically my view is that it's this over reactiveness and obsession with free cash flow has swung so far so as to create a too-painful jam.

I would agree that over consumption is a problem, albeit a separate one to the conversation at hand.

Cheers.

[LurkingPenguin]

> That's not a bad approach, but the problem is a lot of supply chain planning is top-down and dictates "we only want to keep $x tied up in inventory" and as you can imagine that number is driven by management as low as possible.

This actually isn't true to the extent you seem to think it is, though.

> Basically my view is that it's this over reactiveness and obsession with free cash flow has swung so far so as to create a too-painful jam.

But that's not the only cause of the supply chain situation. Transportation is also a big part of the issue. Even if you had 10 years' worth of widgets in a warehouse in China, if you can't get them on a ship, or the shipping costs are too high, you get supply shortages where the customers need those widgets.

[swiley]

Is there an easy way for people with yachts to transport stuff like this for a profit?

[LurkingPenguin]

No. Virtually all goods that move by sea (save for commodities like oil) move in containers, which require container ships and associated infrastructure (deep water ports, etc.).

[swiley]

If containers aren't working I'm sure people would be willing to use something like the black and yellow totes given enough market pressure.

[LurkingPenguin]

I think you're vastly underestimating the volume of cargo that moves and the world of infrastructure that has been put in place to move it.

Also, to the extent that small vessels are used in the "transportation" business, it's for contraband, not Beanie Babies. Look up the street value of 100 kilos (~220 pounds) of cocaine in major US and European cities and compare it to the value of a 40 foot container full of nuts and bolts.